But Edwards is made kingmaker (or queenmaker) for SC since in much of the state so far, Clinton's loss margin is almost equal to the votes given to Edwards. Should Edwards pass his people to Obama, Obama will take SC in the general election. Why? Look at the numbers between McCain (current front runner) and Obama, Obama has carried more counties than McCain and by wider vote margins.
Interesting Exit Polls from SC:
Obama took 78% of the black vote. Edwards and Clinton split the white vote practically in half with Edwards taking a slight lead. This underscores Edward's King/queenmaking ability. Further study of the black turnout is that there is no so called "generational gap" among Black Obama supporters as he polled at least in the 70 percentiles in all age groups. There IS a generational gap to be seen in whites between ages 18-29 (those more likely to be star struck and adhere to "post-racial" ideologies).
There are two things that stand out from this exit poll to me:
1) There is very little fluxuation between voter choice vs. the issues. It seems to me that most of the voters had their minds made up and if anything the Dr. King events only hardened peoples decisions. Usually you'll see a fluctuation based on issues. If Iraq was an issue then Republicans voted McCain, if Religion was an issue, Repubs voted Huckabee. In the Democratic primary almost across the board, it was Barack. You cannot tell me that this was about 'issues" when it is clear that blacks voted the black candidate across the board and whites voted the white candidates across the board. It is clear that for whites in SC, the decision was between gender, the race issue was mostly settled.
This brings up an interesting issue. What if there was another black candidate to choose from. What if a candidate with Obama's qualifications and money were in the race? In one sense Obama has an advantage over his opponents, the fact that he is the lone black candidate works in his favor when race is "off the table" for whites, or "on the table" for blacks." This brings me to point two.
2) If there is anything that will come out of a Obama presidency it will get African-Americans out of the "first one" cave that they are currently operating in. Just like with NYC's David Dinkins and other cities with black governors and mayors. Once it's been done, when the euphoria wears off, the black electorate of those places matures and gets back to issues and race can no longer be used in the political game with much results. It is similar to Representative Keith Ellison. After him, the issue of running for a congressional seat as a Muslim becomes less of a thing because a successful Ellison term takes the issue off the table.
Oh and lastly it appears that the Obama campaign has seen the light in regards to my suggestion that they drop "si se puede" as their chant. They've reverted to the English translation. Smart move.
Technorati Tags: 2008 US Elections