Days Black People Not Re-Enslaved By Trump

Thursday, November 18, 2004

Palast, Ohio, and the Real Court Case

Greg Palasts assertions that Kerry took Ohio (and New Mexico) have taken off on the blogospher and news programs. He has been a guest on Like It Ism with Gil Noble and has had his assertions repeated by many other writers. I have gone on record that I think that his assertion is simply a guess and we won't know the truth until or unless all the votes are counted. Anything else is mere speculation.

The Black Commentator ran a think piece that asseted, like many others that the exit polls were right and that their divergence from the official outcome is a sign of tampering. Let's address this:

1) When Douglas Wilder was running for governor of Virginia in 1989, Exit polls had Wilder up by 10%. He actually won by 1%.

2) When David Dinkins was running for Mayor of NYC against Guiliani, exit polls had him ahead by 8 points. In the end Dinkins won by 1%. another.

I could do like Greg palast and say that exit polls can be wrong by a stunning 900-800% . I could say that exit polls can be wrong by 8x-9x the actual outcome. It would stirr up all kinds of emotions but wouldn't address the real issue. Exit polls can be wrong. No exit poll can force people to actully participate or tell the truth. Thus those who repeatedly claim exit polls to be infallible also have bridges to sell.

Let's go back to the "missing votes." As indicated before Greg Palast and other say there are some 240,000 missing votes, 90,000+ of these would be spoiled ballots. that is they had hanging chads, dimples, multiple votes, or some other "Problem." ther remaining 154,000 were provisional ballots. here's what has been said about these:

Unofficial Ohio presidential results provided by the Secretary of State’s Office show 155,428 provisional ballots cast. Blackwell was all over the national news telling everyone who would listen that these ballots were randomly distributed and not disproportionately for Kerry. As former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani raved on national TV demanding Kerry’s concession, a basic analysis of the provisional ballots suggested that they were disproportionately for Kerry.

Historically, provisional ballots are far more likely to be cast by poor and minority voters, who live in the urban centers and move more often. Ohio has 88 counties, the vast majority of them rural. Kerry won 15 counties in Ohio, virtually all large urban centers. In those counties, 85,096 provisional ballots remain uncounted. Past elections point to the fact that these provisional ballots are hardly ever cast in the affluent, primarily Republican municipalities, but are overwhelmingly from the central city. Also, an additional 17,038 provisional ballots are from Hamilton County and Wood County. Bush won Hamilton with 53% of the vote and Wood County with 53.5%. Traditionally, the provisional ballots in Hamilton County come from Cincinnati and its poor central city areas. These are areas where John Kerry won handily on Election Day.

Thus, 102,134 of the provisional ballots, nearly two-thirds (65.7%) in all probability come from solidly pro-Kerry areas and are most likely cast by pro-Kerry supporters such as African Americans and the poor. These fit the same socio-economic demographics and racial profiles of voters targeted by the GOP for challenges in Ohio.

Palast also points to the 92,672 so-called “spoiled” ballots in Ohio that have yet to be counted, and may never be tallied. The most famous spoiled ballots were the 2000 Florida punch cards that could not be machine read, but when looked at manually the voter’s intent could be determined. Expert statisticians who investigated spoilage in the 2000 election in Florida found that 54% of these discarded ballots were cast by blacks. In Ohio, most of the spoiled votes were lost through punch card ballots in 2004.


The above was written by Bob Fitrakis of Columbus State Community College.

Let's take a look at some things here: Ohio has 88 counties or which Kerry won 15. It is claimed that these are all "large urban centers." Let's look at the 2000 census figures:

So here's the black population of areas with predominant (50% or more) black populations.


Bedford Heights city, Cuyahoga County: 67.4% black : 7666.75

Cleveland city, Cuyahoga County: 51% Black: 243685

East Cleveland city, Cuyahoga County 93.4% black :25420

Forest Park city, Hamilton County: 56.3% black: 10957.669

Fort McKinley CDP, Montgomery County: 53.2% black: 2122.148

Golf Manor village, Hamilton County: 63% black: 2519.37

Highland Hills village, Cuyahoga County: 65.1% black: 1053.318

Lincoln Heights village, Hamilton County: 98% black: 4030.74

Maplewood Park CDP, Trumbull County; 58.3% Black:187.143

North Randall village, Cuyahoga County: 71.7% black: 649.602

Oakwood village, Cuyahoga County: 56.2% black: 2060.854

Silverton city, Hamilton County: 50.3% black: 2604.534

Trotwood city, Montgomery County: 58.3% black :15985.86

Urbancrest village, Franklin County: 57.9% black: 502

Warrensville Heights city, Cuyahoga County: 90.4% black: 13658.536

Wilberforce CDP, Greene County: 84.2% black: 1329.518

Woodlawn village, Hamilton County: 68.4% black:1926.144

Woodmere village, Cuyahoga County 49.6% black (more blacks than whites by 10%) :410.688

Youngstown city:43.8% black (I've been there and it's a pretty big city for Ohio):35927


Only Cleveland has a huge black population and only 3 other counties have black populations that are over 10,000.

Let's also look at where the provisional ballots were cast (http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html ):

Provisional Ballots cast by county (Percent of Total):
Cuyahoga: 24788 (16%)
Hamilton county: 14386:(9%)
Wood: 2655 (1.73%)
Trumbull: 2700 (1.7%)
Montgomery:9,227 (6%)
Greene 2127 (1.3%)
Franklin: 14446 (9%)

Total: 153,329


lets look at this table showing the total votes cast by county, the number of provisional ballots and the proportion of the black population for these counties:
















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































County Name Total Precincts Total Registered Voters Total Votes Cast Percentage of Votes Cast Provisional Ballots Issued % Black Population (2000) Projected Black vote Turnout based on Population and votes cast Predicted White Vote
Adams 35 17,696 12,094 68.34 184 0.20% 24 12,070
Allen 139 68,174 48,121 70.59 1,374 12.20% 5,871 42,250
Ashland 65 34,847 25,171 72.23 629 0.80% 201 24,970
Ashtabula 127 62,926 45,474 72.27 1,142 3.20% 1,455 44,019
Athens 69 45,100 27,960 62 2,504 2.40% 671 27,289
Auglaize 39 33,094 22,528 68.07 647 0.20% 45 22,483
Belmont 83 44,452 33,452 75.25 1,067 3.60% 1,204 32,248
Brown 35 28,922 20,030 69.26 326 0.90% 180 19,850
Butler 289 238,117 163,668 68.73 5,793 5.30% 8,674 154,994
Carroll 26 20,076 14,172 70.59 304 0.50% 71 14,101
Champaign 29 25,376 18,564 73.16 555 2.30% 427 18,137
Clark 100 89,683 68,883 76.81 1,279 8.90% 6,131 62,752
Clermont 191 125,823 88,019 69.95 1,818 0.90% 792 87,227
Clinton 32 25,092 18,177 72.44 378 2.20% 400 17,777
Columbiana 103 78,536 49,249 62.71 1,085 2.20% 1,083 48,166
Coshocton 43 22,679 17,331 76.42 277 1.10% 191 17,140
Crawford 46 29,591 21,906 74.03 424 0.60% 131 21,775
Cuyahoga 1,436 1,005,807 665,334 66.15 24,788 27.40% 182,302 483,032
Darke 43 38,290 26,379 68.89 710 0.40% 106 26,273
Defiance 42 25,847 18,169 70.29 672 1.80% 327 17,842
Delaware 123 100,676 79,691 79.16 1,891 2.50% 1,992 77,699
Erie 62 55,517 39,690 71.49 972 8.60% 3,413 36,277
Fairfield 118 91,498 67,632 73.92 1,306 2.70% 1,826 65,806
Fayette 38 16,093 11,704 72.73 293 2.10% 246 11,458
Franklin 788 845,720 515,472 60.95 14,446 17.90% 92,269 423,203
Fulton 35 28,561 21,902 76.69 381 0.20% 44 21,858
Gallia 35 23,567 13,944 59.17 574 2.70% 376 13,568
Geauga 96 65,393 51,286 78.43 668 1.20% 615 50,671
Greene 142 105,079 77,830 74.07 2,127 6.40% 4,981 72,849
Guernsey 37 27,129 16,570 61.08 558 1.50% 249 16,321
Hamilton 1,013 573,612 418,001 72.87 14,386 23.40% 97,812 320,189
Hancock 62 49,607 35,087 70.73 791 1.10% 386 34,701
Hardin 38 18,921 13,146 69.48 349 0.70% 92 13,054
Harrison 24 11,769 8,410 71.46 89 2.20% 185 8,225
Henry 33 19,685 15,188 77.16 250 0.60% 91 15,097
Highland 31 28,243 18,323 64.88 494 1.50% 275 18,048
Hocking 32 18,378 13,258 72.14 251 0.90% 119 13,139
Holmes 19 18,089 11,542 63.81 170 0.30% 35 11,507
Huron 55 37,436 25,584 68.34 670 1.00% 256 25,328
Jackson 38 23,997 14,332 59.72 422 0.60% 86 14,246
Jefferson 91 49,655 36,528 73.56 650 5.70% 2,082 34,446
Knox 56 36,971 26,661 72.11 689 0.70% 187 26,474
Lake 217 160,165 119,657 74.71 1,975 2.00% 2,393 117,264
Lawrence 84 41,424 27,876 67.29 599 2.10% 585 27,291
Licking 122 111,387 78,876 70.81 1,565 2.10% 1,656 77,220
Logan 52 29,406 21,135 71.87 650 1.70% 359 20,776
Lorain 239 196,601 139,069 70.74 4,134 8.50% 11,821 127,248
Lucas 495 302,136 216,453 71.64 6,719 17.00% 36,797 179,656
Madison 44 23,477 17,451 74.33 392 6.20% 1,082 16,369
Mahoning 312 194,673 131,938 67.77 2,717 15.90% 20,978 110,960
Marion 84 43,323 28,762 66.39 928 5.70% 1,639 27,123
Medina 149 118,330 84,725 71.6 1,266 0.90% 763 83,962
Meigs 27 15,205 10,813 71.11 240 0.70% 76 10,737
Mercer 37 31,306 20,478 65.41 931 0.10% 20 20,458
Miami 82 72,169 50,562 70.06 1,609 2.00% 1,011 49,551
Monroe 29 10,350 7,857 75.91 132 0.30% 24 7,833
Montgomery 588 391,914 279,801 71.39 9,227 19.90% 55,680 224,121
Morgan 22 9,358 6,770 72.34 160 3.40% 230 6,540
Morrow 36 24,249 16,403 67.64 314 0.30% 49 16,354
Muskingum 85 51,552 38,817 75.3 871 4.00% 1,552 37,265
Noble 27 8,879 6,715 75.63 75 6.70% 450 6,265
Ottawa 78 30,251 23,052 76.2 469 0.60% 138 22,914
Paulding 30 14,226 9,881 69.46 243 1.00% 99 9,782
Perry 46 23,480 15,328 65.28 428 0.20% 31 15,297
Pickaway 53 30,045 22,579 75.15 553 6.40% 1,445 21,134
Pike 24 19,661 12,708 64.64 285 0.90% 114 12,594
Portage 129 109,565 76,306 69.64 1,445 3.20% 2,442 73,864
Preble 45 28,137 21,226 75.44 493 0.30% 64 21,162
Putnam 35 24,572 18,948 77.11 246 0.20% 38 18,910
Richland 126 95,359 61,907 64.92 1,357 9.40% 5,819 56,088
Ross 76 43,463 31,402 72.25 563 6.20% 1,946 29,456
Sandusky 72 39,408 32,433 82.3 760 2.70% 875 31,558
Scioto 106 48,012 35,317 73.56 867 2.70% 953 34,364
Seneca 54 37,974 27,148 71.49 494 1.80% 488 26,660
Shelby 35 28,460 22,688 79.72 791 1.50% 304 22,384
Stark 364 267,939 186,252 69.51 6,653 7.20% 13,410 172,842
Summit 475 368,858 275,551 74.7 5,932 13.20% 36,372 239,179
Trumbull 274 142,548 108,533 76.14 2,700 7.90% 8,574 99,959
Tuscarawas 81 55,656 42,871 77.03 987 0.70% 300 42,571
Union 46 30,200 22,515 74.55 436 9.40% 2,116 20,399
Van Wert 39 21,100 15,252 72.28 297 0.70% 107 15,145
Vinton 20 8,527 6,059 71.06 129 0.40% 24 6,035
Warren 157 125,919 93,321 74.11 1,465 2.70% 2,520 90,801
Washington 56 40,881 29,707 72.67 643 0.90% 267 29,440
Wayne 97 69,672 51,898 74.49 818 1.60% 830 51,068
Williams 44 26,772 18,324 68.44 694 0.70% 128 18,196
Wood 105 91,492 61,865 67.62 2,655 1.30% 804 61,061
Wyandot 24 15,834 10,785 68.11 138 0.10% 11 10,774
TOTAL 11,360 7,979,639 5,574,476 69.86 155,428 635,291


Onto Part II

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