How Hillary Lost It

And so with the Democratic primaries winding to a close I think I'll point out why I think Hillary Clinton lost the race.

1) Sexism: By no means do I think that sexism was the biggest factor in Hillary's loss to Obama, but it is as undeniable as the 90% black vote that Obama has gotten. From the comments about what she was wearing, the ball busting souvenir, "Bro's before Hos" signs that I have seen all over the place it is pretty clear that there has been an undercurrent of sexism here. I wont even get into the religion based ideas of the submissive woman and the on air name calling. So yes sexism played it's part and needs to be acknowledged.

2)"Invincibility" and it's fallout: Early in the expanded primary season Hillary Clinton came off as the inevitable Democratic nominee. That was very bad. To "everyday" folk, that comes off as arrogant. But for Hillary it was worse than that. Because she saw herself (or at least projected) as the shoo-in, she made a few related mistakes. First she spent money on the campaign as if she only needed to make it past the first 3-4 or so. Reading the NY Times report on her spending on high priced hotels and the likes was like watching an accident about to happen. Let's not get into how bad it looks to be a presidential candidate who can't keep her own campaign finances in order.

Secondly. she underestimated everyone else, specifically Obama. She should have known when Obama hit that stage in 2004 that should he run, she would have problems. Here you had a new black face representing a state, not a district, indicative of broad white support. furthermore, it seems that Clinton's people didn't look at who was behind Obama's money machine. So we see that Hillary's decision to play the "inevitable" and "invincible" cards were big mistakes on her part.

3) She's a Clinton: This is one of the hardest things that she'll come to understand. Polls have been out for ever showing that Hillary Clinton, while popular has a huge "hater crowd." Huge. This hater crowd consists of a few groups of people:

a) People who hate Democrats.
b) People that hate Bill Clinton and therefore hate his wife too.
c) People who think Hillary was dumb to stand by her man after the Lewinsky thingy.

Read the press and you'll see references to at least the last two come up all the time.

The second biggest problem with being a Clinton is that there was already a Clinton presidency and Americans are not up for dynasty's unless it's the old TV show. The whole Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Clinton thing is not a good sell. It smacks of insiderism. Think about it, people looking for change are going to look back and say, hmmmm 20 years of the same two folk and another 4 to 8? Ummmm, maybe not.

Related to being a Clinton is the claim that being first lady counts as qualifications. I actually agree with this argument to an extent. I think Hillary's experience in as First Lady was pretty instructive and formative for the person we see now. I recall that whole episode with Health Care. I saw the relatively naive Clinton, find out the hard way how Washington and certain industries work.

Unfortunately I don't think a good portion of the voting population quite appreciates that or for that matter cares. There's a sexist angle to that (First lady as arm decoration for the President) but it also just looks like more insider. Furthermore if, Hillary can claim experience for being first lady then Bill Clinton would have power in a Hillary presidency and there are people who aren't comfortable with that. So the 2-fer angle is a sword that can cut both ways for Clinton and generally I think it's been cutting Hillary.

4) The Iraq war vote: I have no doubt that Hillary's Iraq war vote is a big reason why she has lost this race. If the candidate is saying I have better judgment than Bush, then he or she has to explain how they voted for the Iraq war. Either Hillary fell for the story, hook line and sinker despite the numerous writings a Google Search away that showed the "imminent danger" or Iraq to be a total fabrication or Hillary was going for political points by trying to look tough (manly?). Either way Hillary loses.

5) Gawd Awful Timing: I sincerely believe that Hillary's best chance for a presidential run was in 2004 (Clinton factor aside). I know that the strategy was that with Bush having to leave office and Republicans being on the ropes for mismanaging the war and the economy, it would be relatively easy for a Democrat to get the White House. The problem here is that GWB has done so badly as a president and the Democrats have been so unwilling to confront these criminals in office, that the citizenry wants change. Clinton, who has not done anything outstandingly newsworthy to show that she's a different kind of politician, simply looks like another politician looking to get into the big house. Meanwhile Obama, is fresh faced, little if any real political baggage (that most citizens care about or know of) and who got the Iraq war vote right, looks the part. Furthermore; with Bush's clear ineptitude, I think a lot of voters are thinking Obama can't possibly do any worse than Bush so why not give him a chance.

6) Bad "friends": What was Gloria Steinhem thinking with that OP-Ed piece that was so blatantly a-historical? Geraldine "Obama's an Affirmative Action Case" Ferraro? Mr. "Shuck and Jive" Cuomo? Bob "You know what I'm talking about" Johnson? Methinks Hillary will need to spend the time after the convention thinking about the friends she has. I believe 1/3 of the democratic base is black. You simply are not going to get black votes when you have "friends" who talk like that. But in a larger picture it is clear that Hillary (and Bill) were thinking that they could call in political favors for this run. To be honest I'm somewhat shocked at the number of superdelagates that owe some portion of their political careers to the Clintons for having publicly sided against her. I would have thought that friendship would have at least called for respectful silence (which is a good enough warning shot IMHO). So if I were Hillary (and Bill) Bill Richardson would be on my FOAD list. But this underscores the idea that the Clintons, though popular, really don't have loyal friends.

7) The MLK-Johnson thing: I'm not sure how to rate this, but that flap did serve to wrongly galvanize a lot of black voters. I think Hillary got a raw deal on that one. Most people I discussed this with had not even heard the entire comment. I would lay hard cold cash on the table, that most of the people who were upset about the comment could not have even have named Johnson as the President that signed the Civil Rights Act. Was Clinton going to get more than the 10 or so percent she got? I don't think so. Black voters were going to vote the popular black candidate as sure as whites in West Virgina were going to vote the popular white candidate. Different reasons, same phenomenon. If there was no popular black candidate then black folk would have followed the same voting patterns that they had done before: vote one of the white candidates (See Gawd Awful Timing).


So that's my list. They are not in order but if I had to do so I would rate the Iraq War vote tops with "Being a Clinton" and " Invincibility" as close seconds.