Check The Logic

The incredibly stupid move by Israel to attack the sovereign nation of Lebanon over the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah is only trumped by the stupid logic that the US is employing while discussing the matter. I'll get back to the logic in a second. Not to long ago I wrote that the Arab States around Israel have been publicly shown how weak they are as they sit back and watch Israel run over Gaza.
The New York Times has shown that the state of Lebanon has not responded to a direct attack on it's infrastructure, nor have they even responded to what amounts to a declaration of war by Israel:



Early on Thursday morning, Israeli warplanes fired missiles at the runways at Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, shutting the airport and potentially stranding thousands of visitors at the peak of the tourism season. The Israeli military confirmed the strike, saying that the airport was a target because Hezbollah receives weapons shipments there. Israel also announced that its navy would blockade Lebanon’s ports to cut off such shipments.

“I want to make clear that the event this morning is not a terror act, but an act of a sovereign state that attacked Israel without reason,” Mr. Olmert said. “The government of Lebanon, of which Hezbollah is a part, is trying to shake the stability of the region.”

Now we come to the operating logic:

1) We can blow up an airport that serves as a transportation hub for civilians because we believe (and it may be a fact) that arms find their way onto planes that arrive there. Never mind the, you know, civilians. So the logic here is: If a place can or has been used by any military then it is fair game. OK. In that case, the whole kidnapping thing is fair game since clearly areas and therefore people involved with military activity are fair game. This logic merely leads to tit-for-tat strikes and counter-strikes in which the best armed does the most damage.

2) Since the persons involved in the two soldiers kidnapping are nationals of a state or acted from within that state then the "host" state is responsible. OK. If that is the case, we should expect a Cuban missile strike any minute now since the US has and is harboring persons who have committed terrorist acts against Cuba. One Mr. Posada is still in the US. I strongly doubt that such an attack is imminent because the US is far stronger than Cuba, which is really the operating logic here. Israel is attacking Gaza and now Lebanon not because some soldiers have been kidnapped. No, the reason is because Israel can do so. If the military capability of Lebanon was anywhere close to that of Israel, the airport would be quite functional right now.

The worst thing that can happen now is that the other surrounding Arab states find some backbone and take on Israel and, catch this, If OPEC nations either cease oil delivery or jack the price per barrel of oil up say, 500% and cripple the US economy until Israel chills out. I guarantee that $10+/gallon gasoline would change a whole lot of attitudes in Washington as citizens are made to decide between eating and gassing the car and the ancillary activities that cars encourage.

I wonder if as a result of this attack on Lebanon if Hezbollah (and Syria) will be "invited" if not publicly back into the country.

Technorati Tags: Leadership, Middle East, Palestine