Rep. Thomas Massie Was Wrongly Maligned

His side of the story:

More Evidence For The Wuhan Packet Exit Strategy

From the NY Post

His patients were under long-term acute care and had comorbidities such as hypertension, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or congestive heart failure.

The FDA has warnings that azithromycin “can cause abnormal changes in the electrical activity of the heart that may lead to a potentially fatal irregular heart rhythm.”

So instead, Alam replaced azithromycin with another decades-old antibiotic that doesn’t pose any known risks to the heart.

“Doxycycline is an anti-inflammatory with properties similar to azithromycin but without the safety concerns and without cardiac toxicity,” he said...

“The majority had clinical improvement,” said Alam. “We had very good outcomes.” Alam said that 38 of 47 patients treated returned to their baseline and their symptoms resolved. Seven of the patients were transferred to a hospital and two died. [ my underlines]

That's an 80% recovery rate. With people with SERIOUS MEDICAL PROBLEMS!!!! Remember that my Wuhan Packet(tm) exit strategy had a conservative lower bound of 70% effectiveness. This is 30% better than my worst case and real control trials have not been done.

Lets stop chasing hands and focusing on where the ball was and look to where the ball is going!

Wuhan Packet now!

The Exit Strategy

If I were running things this is what would happen from now on.

Many years ago I was at a beach town with a young lady and her 2-3 y.o son. He had gone into the water with his pull up on and of course it absorbed a whole lot of water. We got back to the boardwalk where I suggested changing him so he didn't have to sit in that for the rest of the outing. She didn't want to do it because she thought that there were pedophiles in the hotels along with boardwalk who were either taking pictures of him or, presumably, "getting their jollies" on. The first time she said it, I thought she was joking. But no she was dead serious. This is the kind of mentality that is informing the large numbers of people suggesting extremely lengthy lock downs and whatnot. They have no sense of proportion and are shook to even consider making a decision that might result in someone dying (unless that person is dead from an illegal alien). It's time to be rational about this situation and get to the exits.

While it could be reasonable to say that the lock downs were a reasonable response to an unknown agent that we had no idea the lethality of (thanks China) and no idea what kinds of treatments would work, at this point in time (April 4) such thinking is untenable and not informed by the facts on the ground.

In the worst case scenario (which won't happen) if the unemployment numbers increase at the rate that it is, every adult American will be unemployed by late June. And there are people actually calling for shut downs through July! I say this won't happen because even the moderately insane in positions of govt authority knows not to go down that path. Also, I believe there would be mass rebellions by the public before it gets that bad. So lets get to the facts as we know them.

I'm going to do a lot of rounding here to make the math easier to digest so don't come at me with some "well the rate is actually xxx%".

So we know that about 90% of people who catch the Wuhan virus have mild symptoms. That is no pneumonia. No fluid in lungs. Perhaps a fever but nothing that requires hospitalization. This is not to say they won't have a few bad days.

We also know that among the people who get severe symptoms, regardless of age, they usually have serious medical problems that preceded their infection. That is they were already gifted a lifeline by modern medical science and the new infection is essentially the end of the [new] line for them. But even this can be changed because we now know that there is a regimen that shows great promise as in upwards of 90%$ of those treated do not end up in ICUs and are able to be taken of ventilators or no need to be on one if caught early enough. This is the key to unlock the exit door.

I operate under the assumption that all 330 million people in America will be infected. 90% of those people are not going to have severe symptoms. That's 297 million we essentially don't have to worry about. Of the 33 million that are expected to have severe cases, we need to have enough of what I'll call The Wuhan Packs to catch them early.

The governments at whatever level should create enough of the 5 day Wuhan Packs (because the treatment is allegedly 5 days of the three medicines) for at least 33 million people. Assuming a once a day dose of each that's 165 million of each treatments. These should be staged at hospitals and pharmacies. If the Abbot quick test machines pan out, they should be distributed to hospitals and pharmacies where people who think they may have the Wuhan virus can get quick tests and immediately get the Wuhan Pack for self treatment. But availability of those machines are not to impact the exit strategy timeline.

This treatment apparently reduces the percentage of people needing critical care by another 90%. Lets be conservative and say 70%. So that would be around 10 million at the high end and 3 million at the low end that would be not saved by the treatment. That's 66k per US State and 181 people a day. though clearly some states would have larger numbers than others. I know there are people out there who cannot stomach 3 million to 10 million dead. But that's how pandemics work. It's why they are called pandemics. And if you're mad about that, take it up with the people who called closing the borders racist. Take it up with the Chinese government and WHO who lied about it. Thus we should be moving away from a "don't let it spread" strategy to a "It will spread, let's get it done" strategy. All this focus on ventilators and protective gear is what in Wing Chun we call "chasing hands". Ventilators are not the solution. They are increasingly "end of life 'care'". Let me repeat here, masks and ventilators are not solutions to THE problem. Harping on them is not an effective long term strategy. As of this writing some of the countries with the highest levels of mask wearing in public are seeing an escalation in infections. My guess is because if the Wuhan virus is that resilient, it's just a waiting game.

This "lets get it done" strategy gets us to population immunity *assuming* we're not dealing with something like influenza where each year brings a new strain that can knock people down again. But we have a plan on that as well. This is opposed to the moderate probability that returns to normal without a Wuhan Pack strategy will simply lead to another huge wave as the still uninfected and therefore not immune come back into contact with the environment.

While implementing The Wuhan Packs, research into a vaccine should be given high priority. Personally I don't consider anything you need to get a shot for every year a vaccine. Vaccine to me implies a one and done for years thing. Unless the developed vaccine is a one and done thing, I would not make it mandatory for anyone. That's what The Wuhan Pack is for. Americans have a right to decide what risks they are willing to take. And if you are the type that wants the government to impose what it thinks is "safety" there are flights leaving multiple airports to places that do that. Find yourself on one of those flights.

Mind you I'm assuming a complete and total infection of the US population. Any reduction in the numbers or percent infected greatly reduces the downstream numbers. Similarly if The Wuhan Packs are more than 90% effective, then the downstream death numbers fall dramatically. This is not 1918. We are not living with 1918 sanitation. We are not living with 1918 medical technology. using 1918 models is extremely faulty and is being used by certain people to scare you into compliance. Think of the number of people who are now scared to death by someone breathing near them. So lets get these Wuhan Packs prepped and delivered, which I think can be done in 2 weeks if the proper resources are mobilized. Open up anyplace that is both sparsely populated and/or has low levels of public transit use which I believe is a large contributor to the spread in NYC.

RIP Bill Withers

Just yesterday I had Bill on my mind. This is one track that has gotten me through a lot of tough times and feelings of loneliness:

Thanks Bill.

States Are Confiscating Private Property And Nobody Is Bothered

[Updated 4-3-2020 10:PM] In this past week two incidents of blatant unconstitutional actions have occurred with nary a peep from the usual "civil liberties" crowd. In NY a person saw the pending pandemic and purchased a large quantity of medical items to resell. He was charging upwards of 700x markups on the products and eventually the state of NY came in and confiscated his goods and gave them to medical facilities.

[updated] I have discovered that the individual is being paid fair market price for the goods being confiscated.

Feldheim was released March 30 on $50,000 bond. Feldheim will be paid fair-market value for the supplies, according to the Department of Justice.

I'm pretty sure a lawyer got involved. [end update] While it may be entirely unethical and illegal to price gouge during an emergency the idea that the state could enter this person's private property, grab up his legally obtained goods without any compensation whatsoever under the guise of an "emergency" is not acceptable to me. Our rights and the state's limits do not simply, respectively, disappear and expand unchecked due to an emergency.

If Amazon can sell medical supplies then so can Joe citizen, if he has any. If 3M can sell medical supplies then so can Joe Citizen. Just because Joe Citizen doesn't have a staff of lawyers on hand and the pockets to pay them for extended litigation, does not give Amazon or 3M any more rights than Joe Citizen.

I have heard exactly zero reports of the state offering the NY guy fair, non-emergency, compensation for the goods he legally acquired. Even if the state wanted to charge him with price gouging it still cannot simply take his shit. Why? Because it was legally obtained and he is the rightful owner of all of it. The state can only dictate an upper ceiling for the sale of his property. Do not let the moral arguments against his behavior (which I would agree with) blind you to this blatant abuse of state power.

Across the Hudson, NJ gov Murphy signed an executive order empowering the state police to confiscate the property of private citizens if that property is deemed "essential" to the state. Again, there was absolutely no effort or discussion on compensation. How is that even legal? Under stand US Constitutional grounds does the state have to confiscate the private property of citizens?

At fucking gun point?

Personally if I was approached by the state for my medical goods, I'm inclined to donate. That's the kind of person I am. But I cannot and would not force any other citizen to do the same. Lets say that a citizen is in possession of 5 months worth of medical masks and possesses a ventilator. And argument could be made that this citizen foresaw getting sick and acquired property that could keep him from getting sick and if he got sick, could keep him alive. Now the state of NJ has empowered the state to override this citizen's right to look out for his own well being and force him to use his property to the benefit of other people rather than himself. And if that citizen resists the state's attempt to confiscate his life supporting property, the state may in fact kill him for it.

That should bother a lot of people.

Michigan Data Supports Ghost Hypothesis

Earlier I hypothesized that blacks in NYC (and any other urban area) would be hard hit with the Wuhan virus:

It stands to reason that the high rates of CVD and Diabetes in the black community of NYC will play into higher death rates among Black people who get infected.

I had noticed a similar pattern in Michigan with the highest numbers of cases in Detroit with cases dropping the further away from Detroit you got. To me, that was clear evidence of a racial pattern in caseload. But you know, can't say bad things about black people, even if it saves their lives. So now data is out from Michigan

Blacks make up 14% of the population in Michigan. So when you see 30% and 40% infections and deaths, you know there is a racial component at play. I suspect we will see similar things in New Orleans and Atlanta in short order. I will say that this rather large "unknown" category is really strange.

The Park Is Closed

Some of you read my other blog and know I've been training for a half-marathon since Sept. When my state did the "stay at home" thing I had (and still have) no intention of not going for my regular runs. The one thing that changed was that a lot more people were out running, jogging and walking. Many I presume were people who usually do treadmills and now couldn't. The parks have been packed though.

Now on the face of it that could be seen as a bad thing if you are the paranoid, believe what the media is telling you, type of person. But generally, people were around people they clearly knew or lived with and generally stayed out of each others way. However; now that America has devolved into a country where half the people are either communists, communist sympathizers, or just the panicky type that likes to impose themselves on other people, I had a feeling this park situation wouldn't last

Ta-daaaaa

Yesterday, road blocks and signs abound: Closed until further notice. Of course I ran right by the signs. Did my six and went home. Today there was a police officer driving around the park. Probably was there yesterday as well but today's my first sighting. He didn't say anything to me. I said nothing to him and we each went about our business. So long as it stays that way I don't have a problem with it. Well I do, but that's not really what I wanted to post about.

I see a lot of people talking about how things need to be shut down for months.

I see some people on that "I'm getting paid to stay home. *snicker*, *snicker*" thing. Some of these people work for the state and think that the state is somehow a bottomless pit of paychecks. Well I know better.

The states ability to pay its employees is dependent in large part on tax revenue. With businesses being closed that means no tax revenue for the state. No gas tax cause nobody is driving. No sales tax 'cause nobody is in the stores buying (except toilet paper). And when mass unemployment happens lower income taxes for those states that have it. Now I have been through previous state mandated furloughs caused by economic problems. 7 days off without pay. A LOT of my co-workers were, shall we say, fucked. Do you think that when that 2021 budget comes around with the big ZERO where March and April revenues were supposed to be, that layoffs won't happen? That pay cuts won't happen. Yeah, you keep snickering and chuckling about the "paid to stay home".

Oh and for those who were working a second job to stay afloat or get ahead, Well, I hope it's a business the state decided was essential.

*Where Are The Recoveries?*

Now I've previously posted that recoveries are a [way] trailing indicator. Still is. I'm getting concerned that it's still trailing because it's been nearly 4 weeks. At this point we should be getting reports either way. We're getting the "x amount of new cases" and "y numbers of deaths" but not "z numbers recovered". This is bothering me. I've been reading a number of articles, which I won't link to because the claims can't be verified, where large numbers of people have been treated with the anti-malarial drugs and yet there is NO comment whatsoever about how many recovered. Why not? Why is this information being withheld? Other reports, from other countries have made claims to the extent of 99% recoveries with a combination of zinc, and anti-viral and the malaria drug. I have seen none of these reports on so called mainstream media. But, as I said, I see x new cases and y new deaths.

Is there a [good] reason for why recoveries are not being reported to the public?

Part of the reason I ask about this is because some people are talking about lock downs being in place until a vaccine in found?

Hell no.

Vaccines take a long time to develop. Unless you have something on the level of Ebola, you don't shut down society until a vaccine is found. We as a species have lived with viruses and bacteria to which we had and have no vaccines for since we have been on the planet. We have always gone about our business when these things happen. This is not "new". Lets assume that the current apparent treatment is in fact effective (I think it is and I think that some of the silence around recoveries is to protect the supply). If that is the case then these lock downs need to end. Those found to be infected should be given a regimen and not hospitalized (assuming no need for a ventilator). Some people aren't going to make it. That's a part of life. Deal with it. Hell it may be me. I accept that risk.

*Survival of The Fittest*

Reports are showing that cardio vascular disease and diabetes has surpassed hypertension as the leading pre-existing condition leading to severe Wuhan virus symptoms. I was wondering why CVD would be up top. Well it turns out that since this virus attacks the lungs pretty aggressively making the patient essentially suffocate, those with high aerobic capacities would be better positioned to survive. This would also explain why there is a relatively large cohort of non-elderly who get severe symptoms (but usually don't die). I started doing MAF training in December. MAF training is a way to increase one's aerobic capacity for endurance events. That is, the faster I can run at a heart rate that is at my maximum aerobic capacity, then the faster I can run without burning limited sugar stores. In essence, I can do more with less oxygen use. I was shocked to find out that I wasn't as aerobically fit as I thought I was. Now I'm much more fit and even my regular walks require less cardio-vascular effort than it used to. This means that if I suffer an illness that reduces my oxygen intake, I have more wiggle room before I require external help.

Most Americans are obese. As I wrote earlier, a very large proportion of African-Americans are obese and are very aerobically unfit. This includes a large proportion of young people who are winded by going up a single flight of stairs. If you can't currently go up a flight of stairs without heavy breathing you may want to seriously consider wearing a mask in public. Just saying.

Will Wuhan Virus Wreak Havok on Black NYC Residents

Lately cities and states with relatively large black populations have seen a spike in "19" cases. I do NOT have a racial breakdown of the cases so I am *hypothesizing* as to what *could* happen. As mentioned in an earlier post having co-morbidities greatly increases ones chance of dying from or with the virus. Those leading issues are :

Cardiovascular disease
Hypertensions
Diabetes

What racial group has the highest incidents of these diseases? Blacks. The video below discusses what these diseases all have in common

So since we know that having metabolic syndrome greatly increases your chances of having severe reactions to "19", lets look at some data from NYC.

We can see that Black New Yorkers have the highest rates of heart disease deaths. Also in line with "19" statistics, black men are more likely to die of heart disease than black women.

Lets look at diabetes (using Brooklyn data):

As we can see again, blacks way out rate whites in diagnosis, hospitalizations and deaths.

It stands to reason that the high rates of CVD and Diabetes in the black community of NYC will play into higher death rates among Black people who get infected.

Get Your Vit C On

This isn't new to me but wanted to share with the readership as something they can do prior to getting sick. From the NYPost (but again, known for a while now):

Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities on Long Island, said his intensive-care patients with the coronavirus immediately receive 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C.

Identical amounts of the powerful antioxidant are then readministered three or four times a day, he said.

I'm not going to mention the product name because those in the know have already emptied the shelves of it around these parts, but there is a product on the market that has close to the 1500mg mentioned in the article. Should you not be able to procure the product there are other things you can do. Oranges, Limes, Lemons and Cranberry juice all have high levels of vitamin C. You can take these items on a regular basis as a way to make it harder for an infection to take hold. This is not just for the current pandemic.

The "funny" thing about it is that a lot of the foods that provide this "medicine" are well stocked, even in the most mass hysteria panic buying emptied stores.

And just to make sure I'm being responsible about this info. Mayo Clinic says:

For adults, the recommended daily amount for vitamin C is 65 to 90 milligrams (mg) a day, and the upper limit is 2,000 mg a day. Although too much dietary vitamin C is unlikely to be harmful, megadoses of vitamin C supplements might cause: Diarrhea
Nausea
Vomiting
Heartburn
Abdominal cramps
Headache
Insomnia

Oil Of Oregano

No. No math today. Just want to share one of the things I do when I go places where I expect to run into sick people, or where sick people are likely to run into me, Oil or Oregano.

One of the things with the recent outbreak but is not limited to the recent outbreak is that some of these viruses and bacteria are airborne and so enter via the mouth or nose regardless of whether you put your hands in either location. Think about when you are walking down the street and someone with bad breath has passed and you go "damn". Now that person is long gone but there's that funk.

Right.

So oil of oregano is a known anti-viral :

The researchers noted that this action is likely due to carvacrol, one of the main compounds in oregano oil. While carvacrol was more effective against certain viruses on its own, oregano oil was more effective against respiratory viruses, such as flu viruses.

Referenced paper here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3768712/

I'm not saying it's effective against THIS particular virus. I don't know. I do know is when I go out, I put some in my mouth. When I travel, I put some in my mouth.

I also consciously remember to nose breath rather than mouth breath because:

Filtering prevents airborne bacteria, viruses, other potentially disease-causing substances from entering the lungs, where they may cause infection. Filtering also eliminates smog and dust particles, which may clog the narrow air passages in the smallest bronchioles.

Just a warning though. Oil of Oregano is STRONG. You only need 3 drops max. You will feeeeeel it.

Recoveries As A Lagging Indicator?

So there is a website, worldmeters, that is keeping up to date info on Wuhan cases. First I noticed this:

So many cases, so few recoveries.

Then there is this:

So many "mild condition" cases but only 592 closed cases. I would think that you would have a far higher number of closed cases where "mild conditions" are either recovered or dead? No? Why not?

Here's a sample of the per state data

Again, where are the recoveries? It would seem to me that the mild cases are taking a while to clear up OR they aren't being reported. Assuming the former and not the latter, we should see either an enormous spike in deaths within the next week or an enormous spike in recovered outcomes. If we have the former then Wuhan would have a higher mortality than Ebola (40%). Of course it could matter who gets infected and dies, If the bell tolls for the elderly with other conditions rather than the population at large, then the Ebola comparison would be entirely incorrect.

In either case, I think we should keep an eye out for the recovery numbers. "mild conditions" shouldn't become "dead" without passing through "severe" unless onset of severe symptoms is extremely rapid.

Updated Wuhan Virus Math

New chart

Mean: 1427.4
Standard Deviation:1655.7
Variance: 2,741,416.7

Compared to Friday:

1) The Mean is: 1116 deaths.
The Standard Deviation is: 1262
The Margin of Error is: 420.5
Variance: 1,592,094

Variance has gone up 500k. SD has increased by 400 and mean by 300. These increases are within the margin of error.

Most of the increases in deaths have come from Italy,Spain and Iran, with ~800,700 and 250 respectively.

Medium: Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

[Updated 3-22-2020 8 AM] Medium has an excellent piece out. You'll see some of the data I have presented here in it. One of the closing messages:

Local governments and politicians are inflicting massive harm and disruption with little evidence to support their draconian edicts. Every local government is in a mimetic race to one-up each other in authoritarian city ordinances to show us who has more “abundance of caution”. Politicians are competing, not on more evidence or more COVID-19 cures but more caution. As unemployment rises and families feel unbearably burdened already, they feel pressure to “fix” the situation they created with even more radical and “creative” policy solutions. This only creates more problems and an even larger snowball effect. The first place to start is to stop killing the patient and focus on what works.

Yes sir. The responses have been "virtue signaling" writ large. [update] I wake up this morning to the article being pulled by Medium. Allegedly there are serious errors in the paper. I can't check because I didn't download the original (which goes back to my criticism of media changing and removing items from the internet). But I wanted to draw the reader's attention to one of the critiques:

Do you see the problem with the critique? No? Yes?

Alrighty then, the author stated in a headline:

1% of cases will be severe

Followed by:

~1% of percent of everyone who is tested for COVID-19 with the US will have a severe case [my underlines]

The accompanying chart is headlined:

Coronavirus [COVID1-19]: The Severity of diagnosed cases in China

Since we cannot go back to the original article to get how the author got his 1% we don't know if that claim is supported by later data or extrapolation from current available data. However; as it stands, this particular critique is unfounded. Right on it's face.

In my post about the math I gave the mean, sd, me and variance for the numbers as on that day. I showed that mathematically, China and Italy were/are statistical outliers. We should pay attention to them, but it is unlikely they will be the example of what to expect world wide. I put the variance on there so that the reader can know how bad it *could* get. Those numbers were for deaths rather than "severe cases" which is in dispute here.

Per my "math" post, the US death rate is 1.5%. Not the 2.3% seen in China. Could it go up? variance says yes. Will it go up? Nobody knows. But here's the rub as I've pointed out earlier. If there are far more undiagnosed cases of Wuhan than we known (the known unknowns) then the actual case numbers skyrockets and the percentage of those with severe cases shrinks dramatically.

Anyway it's too bad that the piece is unavailable. Now you can't read it. Now you can't follow the links in it to primary sources and you can't engage in the open debate. The gatekeepers have decided for you. For your own benefit of course.

End Of Week Muhan Math

The Telegraph posted an article on the ranges in infections and deaths for different countries. It contained the following chart (which of course will change after this posting):

I did some math against these numbers and found the following:

1) The Mean is: 1116 deaths.
The Standard Deviation is: 1262
The Margin of Error is: 420.5
Variance: 1,592,094

As you can see only China and Italy has deaths above the mean and 2 Standard Deviations from the mean. Mathematically we would consider these two cases to be outlier data that is to be considered suspect. Similarly Germany and South Korea would be considered outliers even though they are well within 1SD of the mean. The math suggests that Spain, France and Iran may be the most likely outcome. Realize with a variance as high as 1.6 million we could still see "large" numbers of deaths. I put large in quotes because next to the world population of 7.8 billion, 1.6 million is not all that much. That may sound cold but that's the numbers.

Other things of note in that article:

But there are other factors that may have contributed to Italy’s fatality rates, experts say. This includes a high rate of smoking and pollution - the majority of deaths have been in the northern region Lombardy region, which is notorious for poor air quality.

Also

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities. “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

Flu Comparisons Are Not Proper They Said

Then this:

Oh.

The rest

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.

Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said.

In addition, X-rays confirmed improvements in lung condition in about 91% of the patients who were treated with favipiravir, compared to 62% or those without the drug.

Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed the drug – also known as Avigan – in 2014, has declined to comment on the claims.

Hypertension is COVID-19 Top ICU Comorbidity

From JAMA

As you can see 58% of those in the ICU with "Wuhan" had hypertension AKA High blood pressure. African-Americans tend to have HBP so those persons may want to evaluate their risks.

Next up was cardio vascular disease, I assume to be things like emphysema, and diabetes. This would indicate that smokers would be at a higher risk.

Also note white blood cell counts:

and Lymphocyte count:

Seems to me that an early crash in lymphocyte count is a significant indicator of pending death. Perhaps early screenings for lymphocytes could be used to determine who should get early aggressive treatments rather than waiting (if they are waiting).

Lastly, the blood urea and creatnine counts at late stages probably indicates onset of kidney failure.

COVID Like HPV? Was The Ghost Right?

A few posts ago, I asserted that:

The other thing is that I have thought that this virus, if it has been in circulation AND is as infectious as it seems to be, that it may be like HPV. Human Papiloma Virus is carried by at least half the population in the US. Most people are asymptomatic but do pass it on. A few people get cancers like cervical cancer and oral cancer relatively late in life due to this virus.

Now news out of Italy:

ROME - "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab. The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".

Screencap in case it disappears:

So there's two ways of looking at this:

The case numbers are far higher than the officials realize (and The Ghost said it was) and therefore the sick and death rate as reported are WAYYY over reported and therefore the shutdowns are a severe overreaction (in terms of actual public risk of serious illness or death).

OR

You hope you can find 50% of the population (that's 170 odd million people in the US) that are possibly infected and isolate them, in order to protect those who will, in short order, be dead from something else. And I don't say that to be crass or flip about the lives of the elderly and sick, just stating the cold hard facts.

It seems that the UK may be looking at this the same way. Either way it appears The Ghost was correct in his hypothesis Update 5:36PM: From

Did Gov. Murphy Just Kill Atlantic City?

So the state of NJ shut down a lot of things, including all casinos. I've previously written that casinos are a good place for any airborne and contact surface transmitted disease to be because of the sheer number of people in close proximity at machines and table games as well as the common touching areas. Also for inexplicable reasons, people actually go to casinos when they are sick. And from the play I have observed, they don't even have a positive expectation game. Anyway, for places where casinos are more entertainment than a serious source of tax revenue, the closing of a casino is not a big deal. In Atlantic City, that is not the case.

Atlantic City has had many state interventions as revenue from closing casinos as well as competition from surrounding states ate into their players and players available bankrolls. But even then the casinos were open and generating some revenue. With this closing Atlantic City essentially has no revenue at all. Below is chart of AC revenue since the 1970

As you can see 2016 Casino revenue is less than half the peak revenue.

2020 Atlantic County budget is:

NORTHFIELD — Atlantic County’s budget is estimated to increase slightly to $216.7 million in 2020, with the amount to be raised by taxes going up less than 1% to $151.6 million, County Executive Dennis Levinson said Tuesday.

The June 2019 Budget presentation below,

If I'm reading it correctly shows Casino money at $70 million or 33% of total revenues. Now it's not peak AC season so we don't know how much revenue will be lost to the city but the revenue is ~$6 million per month.

Here's the operation budget from the same presentation:

If Casinos go down for 2 months, the entire administrative budget line is gone. Health and Human services could be unfunded. Utilities (whatever that encompasses) could also go unfunded. There is a "reserve for uncollected taxes" but again, one month shut down kills that reserve.

I'm sure people smarter and more informed than I are aware of this possibility and are working on how they'll address that. I'm sure....

NSAIDS and Corona

So since I keep seeing people pointing out that there has been a spike of "young" people with serious COVID complications. It is worth noting the following:

For the moment, the information is only based on observations made with patients admitted to intensive care. Doctors report “massive doses of NSAIDs” taken especially by young people without comorbidity, suffering from severe forms of the disease.

in the list of common NSAIDS:

- ibuprofen (Advil, Antarene, Brufen, Hemagen, Ibupradoll, Intralgis, Nurofen, Nureflex, Spedifen, Spifen, Upfen)

So you may want to ease up on the Advil if you use it regularly for reasons other than doctor's orders. If you're on doctors orders, you may want to have a little convo with them.

Philosophy Saturday

Was supposed to go up yesterday. Sue me. :-D

Anyway, the who Wuhan virus thing reminds me that people don't understand statistics and this thing called variance. I too was in that boat so I'm not going to gloat or act all high and mighty as I've seen far too many [smart] people do in the past two weeks. Anyway, here is a lesson I've learned from gambling that has impacted how I think about these things:

There are things that are very unlikely to happen that do happen. There are things that are supposed to happen frequently that don't.

Most of the time you'll be somewhere in the middle. Don't let either phenomena distract you from the average.