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Sunday, March 22, 2020
Recoveries As A Lagging Indicator?
So there is a website, worldmeters, that is keeping up to date info on Wuhan cases. First I noticed this:
So many cases, so few recoveries.
Then there is this:
So many "mild condition" cases but only 592 closed cases. I would think that you would have a far higher number of closed cases where "mild conditions" are either recovered or dead? No? Why not?
Here's a sample of the per state data
Again, where are the recoveries? It would seem to me that the mild cases are taking a while to clear up OR they aren't being reported. Assuming the former and not the latter, we should see either an enormous spike in deaths within the next week or an enormous spike in recovered outcomes. If we have the former then Wuhan would have a higher mortality than Ebola (40%). Of course it could matter who gets infected and dies, If the bell tolls for the elderly with other conditions rather than the population at large, then the Ebola comparison would be entirely incorrect.
In either case, I think we should keep an eye out for the recovery numbers. "mild conditions" shouldn't become "dead" without passing through "severe" unless onset of severe symptoms is extremely rapid.