Philosophy Saturday

Was supposed to go up yesterday. Sue me. :-D

Anyway, the who Wuhan virus thing reminds me that people don't understand statistics and this thing called variance. I too was in that boat so I'm not going to gloat or act all high and mighty as I've seen far too many [smart] people do in the past two weeks. Anyway, here is a lesson I've learned from gambling that has impacted how I think about these things:

There are things that are very unlikely to happen that do happen. There are things that are supposed to happen frequently that don't.

Most of the time you'll be somewhere in the middle. Don't let either phenomena distract you from the average.