The Exit Strategy

If I were running things this is what would happen from now on.

Many years ago I was at a beach town with a young lady and her 2-3 y.o son. He had gone into the water with his pull up on and of course it absorbed a whole lot of water. We got back to the boardwalk where I suggested changing him so he didn't have to sit in that for the rest of the outing. She didn't want to do it because she thought that there were pedophiles in the hotels along with boardwalk who were either taking pictures of him or, presumably, "getting their jollies" on. The first time she said it, I thought she was joking. But no she was dead serious. This is the kind of mentality that is informing the large numbers of people suggesting extremely lengthy lock downs and whatnot. They have no sense of proportion and are shook to even consider making a decision that might result in someone dying (unless that person is dead from an illegal alien). It's time to be rational about this situation and get to the exits.

While it could be reasonable to say that the lock downs were a reasonable response to an unknown agent that we had no idea the lethality of (thanks China) and no idea what kinds of treatments would work, at this point in time (April 4) such thinking is untenable and not informed by the facts on the ground.

In the worst case scenario (which won't happen) if the unemployment numbers increase at the rate that it is, every adult American will be unemployed by late June. And there are people actually calling for shut downs through July! I say this won't happen because even the moderately insane in positions of govt authority knows not to go down that path. Also, I believe there would be mass rebellions by the public before it gets that bad. So lets get to the facts as we know them.

I'm going to do a lot of rounding here to make the math easier to digest so don't come at me with some "well the rate is actually xxx%".

So we know that about 90% of people who catch the Wuhan virus have mild symptoms. That is no pneumonia. No fluid in lungs. Perhaps a fever but nothing that requires hospitalization. This is not to say they won't have a few bad days.

We also know that among the people who get severe symptoms, regardless of age, they usually have serious medical problems that preceded their infection. That is they were already gifted a lifeline by modern medical science and the new infection is essentially the end of the [new] line for them. But even this can be changed because we now know that there is a regimen that shows great promise as in upwards of 90%$ of those treated do not end up in ICUs and are able to be taken of ventilators or no need to be on one if caught early enough. This is the key to unlock the exit door.

I operate under the assumption that all 330 million people in America will be infected. 90% of those people are not going to have severe symptoms. That's 297 million we essentially don't have to worry about. Of the 33 million that are expected to have severe cases, we need to have enough of what I'll call The Wuhan Packs to catch them early.

The governments at whatever level should create enough of the 5 day Wuhan Packs (because the treatment is allegedly 5 days of the three medicines) for at least 33 million people. Assuming a once a day dose of each that's 165 million of each treatments. These should be staged at hospitals and pharmacies. If the Abbot quick test machines pan out, they should be distributed to hospitals and pharmacies where people who think they may have the Wuhan virus can get quick tests and immediately get the Wuhan Pack for self treatment. But availability of those machines are not to impact the exit strategy timeline.

This treatment apparently reduces the percentage of people needing critical care by another 90%. Lets be conservative and say 70%. So that would be around 10 million at the high end and 3 million at the low end that would be not saved by the treatment. That's 66k per US State and 181 people a day. though clearly some states would have larger numbers than others. I know there are people out there who cannot stomach 3 million to 10 million dead. But that's how pandemics work. It's why they are called pandemics. And if you're mad about that, take it up with the people who called closing the borders racist. Take it up with the Chinese government and WHO who lied about it. Thus we should be moving away from a "don't let it spread" strategy to a "It will spread, let's get it done" strategy. All this focus on ventilators and protective gear is what in Wing Chun we call "chasing hands". Ventilators are not the solution. They are increasingly "end of life 'care'". Let me repeat here, masks and ventilators are not solutions to THE problem. Harping on them is not an effective long term strategy. As of this writing some of the countries with the highest levels of mask wearing in public are seeing an escalation in infections. My guess is because if the Wuhan virus is that resilient, it's just a waiting game.

This "lets get it done" strategy gets us to population immunity *assuming* we're not dealing with something like influenza where each year brings a new strain that can knock people down again. But we have a plan on that as well. This is opposed to the moderate probability that returns to normal without a Wuhan Pack strategy will simply lead to another huge wave as the still uninfected and therefore not immune come back into contact with the environment.

While implementing The Wuhan Packs, research into a vaccine should be given high priority. Personally I don't consider anything you need to get a shot for every year a vaccine. Vaccine to me implies a one and done for years thing. Unless the developed vaccine is a one and done thing, I would not make it mandatory for anyone. That's what The Wuhan Pack is for. Americans have a right to decide what risks they are willing to take. And if you are the type that wants the government to impose what it thinks is "safety" there are flights leaving multiple airports to places that do that. Find yourself on one of those flights.

Mind you I'm assuming a complete and total infection of the US population. Any reduction in the numbers or percent infected greatly reduces the downstream numbers. Similarly if The Wuhan Packs are more than 90% effective, then the downstream death numbers fall dramatically. This is not 1918. We are not living with 1918 sanitation. We are not living with 1918 medical technology. using 1918 models is extremely faulty and is being used by certain people to scare you into compliance. Think of the number of people who are now scared to death by someone breathing near them. So lets get these Wuhan Packs prepped and delivered, which I think can be done in 2 weeks if the proper resources are mobilized. Open up anyplace that is both sparsely populated and/or has low levels of public transit use which I believe is a large contributor to the spread in NYC.