In The Long Run
Of late there have been major conflicts going on in Nigeria. The two that are of most interest to me and probably are the largest distraction of the Nigerian government (and perhaps people) are the conflicts over Oil and Sharia. As was pointed out by Adekunle Ajisebutu this week
The fact that some northern states have enacted Sharia, with no real opposition from the Federal Government or president Obasanjo speaks of a serious weakness on the part of the state apparatus. Clearly there is fear of another Biafra, but you really cannot have a whole other set of laws, based on religion, operating in parts of the country. As predicted, the claims of Sharia "only" applying to Muslims has given way to harrassment of non-Muslims.
Meanwhile, to the South the Ijaw are giving the government hell over the use of their land for oil recovery. This last point is interesting because the main reason for these clashes is that the Ijaw ( and others) want compensation for the use of their land. Fair enough. But given that Peak Oil has come and gone, and prices for Oil will go up forcing the consumers of oil to move to more plentiful and efficient means of fuel, there soon won't be a need for Nigerian oil. What do the Ijaw and the Nigerian government have planned for that time. Earlier this year i did some research that showed that at the current rate of consumption by the US and China, each of whom consume more oil than any other nation, will cause the world known supply of oil to run out within our lifetime and at our childrens lifetime if estimated conservatively. Now it is not well known that the Saudi's own a great deal of stock in US, European and Asian firms. Some other OPEC nations have been adding other types of industries to thier economies in order to not be left holding the bag of sand at the end of the road. What is Nigeria doing? What major fuel alternatives have they invested in? While it is known that Nigeria and other Oil producing states have contracts with oil companies regarding the use of their lands, how many actually have investment in Energy firms so that they continue to reap energy profits after the oil is gone?
If things continue as they are, Nigeria will end up split in two and broke. Well, more broke than it is.