After the many days of prosecution witnesses, I was surprised at how brief the defense's case was. Mind you the state had the burden of proof so one would expect them to have to go through more pains to make their case. That said, I think there is a high likelihood that the jury will find against Chauvin but NOT for intentional murder.
Please note that if you watched the trial on YouTube or elsewhere you got to see and hear stuff that the jury did not. Therefore the conclusion you would come to is likely to be different than what the jury would come to because they are looking at a different set of information. With this in mind let me explain why I think Chauvin is likely to be headed to the big house.
Firstly the jury was shown video of George Floyd dying under Chauvin's knee.
Repeatedly.
I cannot understate the impact that this visual stimuli has on the mind. The state made a clear argument that the cause of death was a result of Chauvin's knee on Floyd's back. That argument was re-enforced by the constant repetition of the video of Chauvin knee on Floyd's back. In essence, the jury was being asked by the state to believe their eyes. That's not a hard ask.
The defense needed to plant reasonable doubt in the jury's mind. The defense could NOT talk away the video of Chauvin's knee to the back of Floyd. Instead, they had to ask the jury to believe in something they could not see This IS a hard ask.
They were being asked to disregard what they saw with their own eyes.
Repeatedly.
And to instead imagine that Floyd's heart was bad and that he would have died regardless of Chauvin's knee. Because that is what would be required for the jury to decline to convict on all counts.
Based on what I think the jury saw and the testimony given, I don't think the jury will clear Chauvin across the board. I think a reasonable and fair jury can believe that even in Floyd had these conditions the act of holding him to the ground played a significant role in Floyd's death, particularly IF they also believe the evidence showing that they suspected that he had ingested drugs.
In an earlier post on the trial I mentioned that what would have definitely won Chauvin would have been a live demonstration of someone healthy being held down in the same manner for the same amount of time who doesn't die. A study was introduced, I believe by the prosecution of healthy males subjected to having plate weights placed on their backs. But plate weights are not knees with the ability of "pinpoint" pressure.
After all, if your claim is that the knee had no impact on the death of Floyd, then anyone, particularly other police who use the tactic, should be willing to subject themselves to it. Heck, Chauvin should have subjected himself to it. If he doesn't quit then you must acquit.
I also think that the defense made a HUGE mistake in introducing a carbon monoxide argument. First of all the old adage applies that you never ask a question you don't already know the answer to. Unless they had a report that showed that Floyd had low Oxygen or high CO concentration. They should have never even brought it up. If I'm a juror, I'd be inclined to ask what else have they not done their prep work on.
Also working against the defense was the fact that Hall not only did not testify but that the transcript of his interrogation in Texas was not put into evidence. This is important because his statements, in conjunction with the female passenger would have gone to contradict the state's position that the Fentanyl had no impact on Floyd's ability to survive the encounter. Also, from what I saw I did not see an explainer as to how a person high on Fentanyl goes from near comatose at the wheel to as active as Floyd was. I may have missed the testimony and if so I'll stand corrected.
The things on Chauvin's side would be the supreme court ruling cited by the defense in regards to Monday Morning Quarterbacking. Such behaviour is not grounds for convictions of police officers and there was a lot of MMQ by the state witnesses.
Secondly, I think that the defense successfully removed "intent" from the table and without intent some of the charges simply do not stand.
With those two items out of the way, I still say it is a tall ask to expect the jury to put aside the numerous times they saw Floyd die under Chauvin's knee AND to see Chauvin's knee continue to be on him after he was non-responsive. Hence why I think Chauvin is going to jail.
