Totally different vibe today.
I recently got my 1997 Z3 2.8 5sp back from the mechanic for major suspension work and some cosmetic work. As you can see from the year, this car will soon be 30 years old. Same engine, Same head gasket! same tranny. 1 clutch and over 200k miles. A couple of water pumps, injectors and catalytic converters. Fuel pump, Idle control valves, PCV system. It's been maintained but clearly not the car I purchased back in 2006.
I also have a 2018 530e that I replaced a 2004 645ci 6 speed (sniff...wiping tears). It's not a bad car but it's not a manual 6 series. It certainly makes my Z3 seem downright primitive. I bought it cause I had to replace the 6 due to reliability issues (just under 300k miles) and changed life circumstances. Driving in to work I realized there was practically no way I could own this vehicle as long as I had owned the Z3.
As a matter of fact, I thought that by the time this electric 5 series gets to the age of my Z3 it will be in parts. Over the weekend I watched a video of an old EV that Rich Rebuilds bought. The car supposedly would go 60 miles on a charge when new. It ran out of juice at around mile 10 or so.
When they got it into the shop and scanned the computer the battery had all of 30% usable charge. Essentially about as much range as my 530e (~16 miles in warm weather, 9 in sub freezing). They were considering purchasing a replacement battery. One that would give them 120 miles was a 5 figure purchase.
5 figures.
I could put a replacement engine in my Z3 for 4 figures with labour. And go further than that. This brings me to the point of this post. Are we moving in the direction of cars becoming disposable products like cell phones?
A lot of EVs are totalled out because the battery is toast. The rest of the car is fine but the battery costs are ridiculously high. Yes, a replacement engine on a modern car is going to cost a lot of money too but that's not nearly as bad a deal. Besides, ICE cars do not "lose range" with the potential of leaving the driver stuck in the middle of nowhere due to a battery deciding to give up the ghost due to a bad cell.
What's a 2012 Tesla going to go for and work 30 years from now? Will there even be any on the market? Will there be a market for after market batteries? I know there are replacement batteries for the BMW i3 being sold in China. But as far as I know, this market is non-existent in the US.
Say my 530e battery decides to die. It's 4 figures to replace. The residual value of the car may be such that the battery is worth half the vehicle value. As said on that video I referenced, "you could buy a...." Becomes a real convo that really doesn't exist for ICE vehicles in the same way. My Z3 is valuable to me because it is a manual transmission with roof that disappears. I don't hold my 530e in the same esteem. It is, indeed, a means of transportation and that is all. I've never owned a vehicle that I was so detached from.
Would I even WANT my 530e in 30 years? Well actually, I'll probably either not be on earth then or not be able to drive so it probably wont matter. But think of all the old cars that people used to lust after and put money aside (or at risk) to obtain when they had the chance (a '87 635CSI manual in my case)? Who's going to be like, yeah I ALWAYS wanted a Tesla Model X when they are 15-20 years old?
Most likely it's going to be like laptops and phones. Latest and greatest, a few that are older, and a whole lot of obsolete models that have no appeal whatsoever, not even the joy of "rowing your own".
Or perhaps fodder for Rich Rebuilds and Hoovie to monetize.


