(17 years of informed commentary)
Yesterday I posted a graph of Swedens' COVID cases vs deaths. I'm just updating this to show the graph to scale.
Can barely make out deaths after Aug 4. So again, I'm not having any arguments with the mask and lockdown people. Here's "The Science". It's their job to explain it and justify their positions.
I try to be careful about what I post here. I don't like being factually wrong and don't like making predictions that at least have some basis in confirmed data. So this post has been sitting in the back pocket because it could really be out in conspiracy theory land. Now? Not so much. It is still a theory but the events of the past few weeks around the world makes it less of a conspiracy. In previous postings I have linked to videos discussing things like Health Passports and the like as [western] governments using COVID as an excuse for wild power grabs, often in direct violations of their own founding legal documents. There has been a great deal of discussion of The Great Reset among dissident folks and more evidence shows up. One thing that has occurred in 2020 (and more so since 2016) is that a lot of "leaders" dropped their masks and showed exactly who and what they are. For example, the governor of NJ who would boldly state that the constitution and it's protections are "above his pay grade" and hence he need not be concerned with such things when dictating rules on where citizens may go and when. What they can purchase and what they must put on their bodies. But that's not much different from Hillary Clinton when discussing US Judges could not bring herself to mention the constitution and following it.
And don't forget that the state of Pennsylvania that actually argued in court that the people have no right to make a living.
So a few days ago I ran across a video discussing a leaked (?) e-mail from a Canadian government agent. Now I cannot confirm the authenticity of the document but the contents is important.
The road map and aim was set out by the PMO and is as follows:
– Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020.
– Rush the acquisition of (or construction of) isolation facilities across every province and territory. Expected by December 2020.
– Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.
– Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020 – early January 2021
– Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program. Expected by Q1 2021.
– Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.
– Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity. Expected Q1 – Q2 2021.
– Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.
– Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.
– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.
– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.
Now I posted yesterday the case of Sweden which is seeing rising cases, in fact beyond its first wave, and yet deaths are flat. In countries where deaths have increased with case rises we have one commonality, they did do lockdowns and masks and therefore only delayed the inevitable. They too could have been done with the pandemic. This is plain from the data (and I've provided them for various countries). Rather than accept the validity of the data and end the lockdown and mask nonsense, these countries are doubling down on these rules. Why would they be doing that if they 'believe in science"?
Along with that provided road map the Strategic Planning committee was asked to design an effective way of transitioning Canadians to meet a unprecedented economic endeavor. One that would change the face of Canada and forever alter the lives of Canadians. What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief. This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided
to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever. The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lock down (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada’s HealthPass) .Committee members asked who would become the owner of the forfeited property and assets in that scenario and what would happen to lenders or financial institutions, we were simply told “the World Debt Reset program will handle all of the details”. Several committee members also questioned what would happen to individuals if they refused to participate in the World Debt Reset program, or the HealthPass, or the vaccination schedule, and the answer we got was very troubling. Essentially we were told it was our duty to make sure we came up with a plan to ensure that would never happen. We were told it was in the individuals best interest to participate. When several committee members pushed relentlessly to get an answer we were told that those who refused would first live under the lock down restrictions indefinitely. And that over a short period of time as more Canadians transitioned into the debt forgiveness program, the ones who refused to participate would be deemed a public safety risk and would be relocated into isolation facilities. Once in those facilities they would be given two options, participate in the debt forgiveness program and be released, or stay indefinitely in the isolation facility under the classification of a serious public health risk and have all their assets seized.
You might want to read that again. Again it is entirely possible that this thing is fake. However; we already have a known case where an international body threatened a country with such financial extortion.
Not that such behavior from the World Bank is new.
Now this is still in conspiracy theory land. So why post it? Well I came across a Time magazine cover and went about making sure it was real. Here it is:
They are saying the quiet part out loud now. That Time Magazine cover is the international one. The one in the US is about voting. It is NOT uncommon to see a different cover or masthead for media on international versions of their publications. The reason being, among other things, other countries are far more strict than the US and will sanction a publication quick, fast and in a hurry. Also, the propaganda sent abroad is often different than the propaganda meant for domestic consumption.
In any case, The Great Reset is a thing. Time Inc. is not a "far right conspiracy theory rag".
Also
World Economic Forum is on record.
Perhaps that is why Sweden is regularly portrayed as the crazy country looking to kill its citizens. They need the Big Lie to hold. They need you scared so that they can say, well if you want your life back, take the shot, install the app, wear the mask, and go where we tell you you can go. And they need to you to believe that those of us who object are mentally defective
No, we are the sane ones. We see the control and reject it.
Think long and hard about what's afoot here. The timetables may be longer than discussed above. They may be shorter than discussed above. I hope they have no possibility of coming true but events around the world don't support such hopes.
Now that the colder weather has settled in for the north, we can start looking at COVID data for Sweden.
Below I have a chart of the pandemic for Sweden. Cases since Feb 15 is on the top and deaths since Feb 15 on the bottom. They are aligned perfectly.
As you can see, Sweden had a nasty bump of ~100 deaths a day between March and April. We also see that they have been flat since August 4. Meanwhile, cases increased and is MORE than it was at their peak on June 29 and yet deaths remain flat at near zero levels.
What this tells us is that once enough of the population has been affected and, yes, unfortunately, the most vulnerable have died off, the pandemic, death wise, is over with. Remember that at it's peak, deaths were 1/5 of cases. That's 20%.
Once again, look at that chart, deaths spiked quickly once cases rose to 500 back in March. Cases are now at 2000 and not a bit of movement in deaths. None.
Sweden did not put face diapers on their citizens. It instituted limited rules on gatherings. The data is clear here. The masks are not the key. "Stopping the Spread" is hysteria propagated by socialist leaning (or actual) leaders seeking population control and other bodies looking to enact social and economic changes that have nothing to do with public health.
I'm no longer arguing with pro lockdown people or mask people. I'm done with that. It is high time THEY have to explain the above chart. It's time for these silly ass rules to go into the dustbin, for the so-called authorities to be held to account (and I'm thinking jail time for real).
"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
-1st Amendment to the US Constitution.
“1f there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein.”
-West Virginia State Board of Education Barnette (1943)
Last year I pointed to these two items (and the 14th Amendment) when I refused to attend a 'diversity" training session that was "mandated" by the state agency I work for. While most, if not all the "colored" folks loved that these sessions were being mandated because they saw it as a chance so "get at white folks". I saw it for the unconstitutional intrusion that it was and knew that acquiescing to that only means that the state would continue to trample on the rights of citizens and in the end, those who were cheering before will be tearing and complaining.
I also commented on the 'Bake that cake" situation of a few years ago that it was a very bad thing that SCOTUS refused to make a hardcore 1st amendment argument against the state and it's "equalities" commission. Instead ducking the issue with comments about how they were being biased against religious people. They should have flat out said that the state has no power to compel any religious person to perform anything for anybody that conflicts with their beliefs (and that includes non-religious beliefs as pointed out in Barnette). Further, I commented that when the state compels a citizen to perform work against their will, then it is ALSO a violation of the 13th amendment which specifically prohibits involuntary servitude.
Section 1. Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
Which brings us to the topic of this post. Over in Virginia the authorities have demanded employees of the Univerity of Virginia Health System get flu shots. Now I have already stated multiple times that there is no such thing as a flu vaccine because a vaccine by definition prevents the disease in question. For example, you get the Polio vaccine. One and done. Similar for MMR. One (or two) and done for life. The flu shot does not work like that. It has as little as 30% effectiveness and the claim is that for strains it misses it reduces symptoms. Well taking Zinc reduces symptoms too (by blocking viral replication). Why not tell your employees to take that? Well because SOMEBODY is getting paid to make that flu shot and somebody is getting paid to give it. Even if YOU don't directly pay for it. But this isn't about the shot, directly. Instead it is the new tack: Official state religion.
UVA Health said, however, it's own interpretation of the Bible must prevail.
"Stating that you are a Christian and citing biblical verses that do not address vaccinations is not sufficient basis for granting an exemption from the vaccine requirement," the worker was told. "Christian philosophy does not have absolute rules that must be followed regarding vaccinations. Therefore, your request is one of a personal belief rather than religious doctrine."
Really? Not according to the supreme law of the land AND Barnette. Even IF it is a personal belief, that employee is covered under 1A and Barnette. But what is most concerning is that the state claims it can dictate what IS and IS NOT a valid religious OR personal belief.
I'm not entirely surprised by this event. In their last election, the state apparatus went blue and went straight after the rights of gun owners in that state. If you thought that such ideas were limited to the state capitol then you haven't been paying attention.
So last night during the debate, which was far superior to the last, Trump gave his COVID philosophy, you can see it below if you missed it or forgot:
Starts 14 seconds in. So let's check the facts.
1) 99.9% recovery for "young people":
By Our World in data If you are "young people" (0-19) he is dead on. , If you are below the age of 60, Trump was also dead on with his 90% number
If you are over the age of 78, you have a 90% chance of dying. So again, Trump was dead on.
Biden on the other hand said that we're "learning to die with it". Clearly, by the data, that is a total and utter lie. Don't care if you like Joe, hate Trump or whatever, You can see the charts for yourself. Joe, like many others, simply want you to live in total fear. If that's your thing, then Joe is your man.
Pointing to another video, I'll echo the sentiments expressed, where apparently we need to have a serious discussion about death and its inevitability (about 3 min in).
So to remind the readership, I am not a Christian. That said, I respect that people find various religious systems compatible with their lives and such systems help them to be the best people they can be. Hence, I usually refrain from having religious arguments with people (wasn't always like that but we learn and grow). One of my positions though is that if you claim to be a [insert religion here] you should follow the tenets of that religion, particularly if such tenets have a personal impact. That is, don't be against homosexuality until you find out your son is gay and then suddenly "see the light". And yes, I picked that example on purpose. Understand that I understand that we are all not perfect and hence even if we do hold to tenets we will fall short. In such cases, it is obligatory to admit that WE fell short, not that the rules are "wrong". The reason for this is easy: If your religious text is the "word of God" whether directly given or inspired by [whatever spirit] to persons who wrote down (or created whatever oral tradition) then it cannot be "wrong". If it is "wrong" then your God is not perfect and the dominoes continue to fall from there. Which brings us to the Pope.
I have long been of the opinion that Pope Francis is and was wholly unfit to be Pope. His actions since being elevated has only cemented that position. Remember that the Pope is allegedly God's representative on earth. Since it has been determined that homosexuality is wrong per divine instruction, no Catholic, much less The Pope should be giving it any quarter. To do so is explicitly against doctrine as allegedly given by God. So either God is full of Doo Doo or the Pope is knowingly and explicitly contradicting doctrine. Since under Christian doctrine, the devil or demon twists and misrepresents the word of God (see Genesis and the Fall of Man) this means The Pope is a demon (or so possessed) and is at the head of the Catholic church.
If the Bishops have any sense of self-respect or at a minimum a sense of keeping the integrity of the Catholic church, they would immediately convene and remove Francis from his position ASAP.
Now one would say that endorsing Civil Unions isn't a big deal because Civil Unions are not marriages. If the Pope was the head of a secular state that would make sense. A secular state recognizes marriages primarily to legitimize parents for legal purposes including taxation. However; the Pope is NOT the head of a secular state. Also by endorsing civil unions he is endorsing the behavior that goes with it. The Church and Christianity in general condemns behavior rather than persons. You LOVE your neighbor but you also say "go and sin no more". Christians ought never be caught out endorsing behavior. This goes 10x times for the head of the Catholic church.
The Seventh Day Adventists have long said that the Catholic church is actually an anti-Christ organization. I don't get involved in inter-denominational spats but the recent things coming out of that institution is making SDA's look like they are prophets.
The other day I ran down proper usage of terms like "often", "rarely", etc. One of the items was a reference to variance. "give or take". Essentially it is recognizing that though something happens "on average" in nature, very few things, if any, are exactly on the point. For example the earth doesn't circle around the sun in the exact same path each and every year. Sometimes it's closer at it's closest point and sometimes it's further away at it's furthest point. And sometimes vice-versa, farther at its closest point than "usual" and closer during its farthest point than "usual". Such events are examples of variance. It's important to understand that when discussing phenomena. And so we have the graph of worldwide COVID deaths.
Note the variance in trajectories. Some countries have high rates and some countries have very low rates. If you looked at the mean it would be somewhere around the 9 per million (eyeballing it). There are many countries far below that number and many countries far above that number. Also looking at the chart there isn't really a discernable pattern to it. While Sweden and New Zealand get attention as outliers in terms of deaths and lockdown/mask policies, places like Gambia, Madagascar and Ghana get no attention but are at the extreme low end of deaths. Anyone like to guess why?
Oh and anyone believing China's numbers can come see me about the sale of a bridge spanning the East River. I mean from 185 per million to zero? Sure.
This also undescores, for me at least, that a lot of the talk about what South Korea and other Asian nations "did right" and "took seriously" is really about variance and the nature of human bio diversity. Some populations are more susceptible for various reasons where others are less susceptible.
Never mind that 8 year olds can't even give consent to sex.
I keep telling people, for me it's not about liking Trump the person. I simply do not agree with the DNC platform. Period. This is an example of what will never have me support any DNC candidate who doesn't condemn this and other lefty nonsense. The Democratic Party that I grew up with would never have even considered such a thing.
Months ago I read somewhere that people overestimate "often" and "likely" so this minor post is about how to use and evaluate these terms when discussing the odds of events (like dying of the Wuhan virus).
"Impossible":
So assume we have 100 events and out of the 100 none of the outcomes meets our criteria, whatever they are. This is a case of "impossible". This is the "can't happen" scenario.
"Rare":
Same 100 events but this time out of the 100 we have 1 event that meets our criteria. This is called a rare case. Sometimes referred to as an 'outlier". These are events that though not impossible, happen so infrequently that they are not generally something you expect to happen at any given time. Yes, you'd be surprised to see it BUT it's not something you concern yourself with.
"Sometimes":
Same 100 events but this time the criterion event happens 10 times. This is sometimes. It's not impossible, it's not really rare but you should be aware that it will come up from time to time. Still events not meeting the criterion will happen far more often.
"Often":
Same 100 events but this time 40 criteria fitting events occur. This is often. It cannot be ignored. Still there are more times than not that this event does NOT happen. You'd be a fool though if you treated it like a "rare" or "sometime" event.
"50-50"
Obviously this is break even. criteria event happens half the time.
"More likely than not":
Here we cross the 50% threshold. In these cases the criteria event happens most of the time vs. other outcomes. You should *expect* this outcome when confronted with the situation. Note that even though this event is expected the incidences of non-criteria events is in "often" territory and you should keep that in mind.
"Near certainty":
In this case, the criteria event is in the 90 out of 100 category. This could also be considered "within the margin of error". In such a case you would put your money on this event "all day, every day". Sometimes the non-criteria event will appear.
"100%"
Obviously this happens all the time. There is no "rare" event. No other possibility exists. The word "definitely" can be used here since "definitive" is 100%. This is why when discussing things like future COVID deaths, making declaratory/definitive statements is a sign that the speaker doesn't understand statistics.
"Give or take...":
This is a lay term for "variance". So if we look at the "rare" case we would say: "10 times out of a 100 give or take..." this is recognizing that things rarely fall into neat patterns. It won't be 10x every time, but over the long haul the events will converge on that.
Did you know that the engine temperature dial/indicator in your car doesn't actually show the temperature of your engine? Nope. The temperature of the coolant in your engine constantly varies. If it showed you in real time, the needle would be bouncing all over the place. Instead the computer averages out the temps and puts the needle where that average falls.
So keep these things in mind when watching news reports of the pandemic. Do the word they use match the data? Are they overstating the issue? Understating the issue?
The Wuhan Pandemic has shown the world that much of America doesn't believe in, or operate under the freedom and democracy that it claims to want to export to the world. When push became shove, much of the US "leadership" dumped the constitution and the natural rights of man(kind) and copied the Chinese Communist Party and allowed governors to run their states as quasi-dictatorships where small cabals of officials got together to determine who's job was important enough to be considered essential, to impose travel restrictions, to criminalize behavior such as walking around, driving to a fro. Gathering with friends and family on and in your private property, etc.
They told businesses they could not open and openly argued in court that you have no right to "make a living". For anyone who has not been paying attention for years, such a thing is surprising but for the rest of us, it is the expected expansion of Nanny Statism, the "western" version of Communism. Nanny Statism's main means of controlling the population, once it gets control of the levers of power is the power of fear. Everything is couched in "for your safety" or "for the safety of others". If someone doesn't feel "safe" then the state has carte blanche to step in and do whatever it likes. Since the legal process is slow and expensive, the victim of state aggression has little means to counter the state, except perhaps violence, but individual violence against the state never succeeds. But this isn't a thesis about violence, Frantz Fanon did that work already. No, this is a comparison between a governor who understands Constitutional Republicanism and a governor who is effectively a Communist.
First, watch this video of the governor of South Dakota and note how she made decisions about what she could and could not do and how she regarded the people she was elected to execute laws for
I will note that Hillsdale College has had some very good presentations and you should watch them in your free time.
Now, listen to NY Governor Andrew Cuomo discuss what's going on in NYS.
Here Cuomo admits that the actions taken in NY are not based on science but on fear. I've already shown that despite the rise in cases in NY, the death rates have remained flat (though they will go up due to seasonality, meaning regular things like low humidity and vit D deficiency due to lack of sunlight will increase all respiratory diseases and yes, deaths).
And lets be clear, the Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods with the increased cases are not living in fear. THEY are not afraid and THAT bothers Di Blasio and Cuomo. They want the NYC public to be afraid because there are CASES even though the deaths are extremely low.
This is a stark contrast. One state is being run by a cabal that is using fear to control the population and another is sticking to the founding principles (sans slavery) to allow people to make informed decisions.
I'd move to South Dakota if it was located say around Virginia/North Carolina. I have no appetite for north mid-west winters. Not one bit. Been there and done that.
People are being fined and potentially arrested and jailed for silly ass quarantine rules that rule out travel to 80% of the country if you have a job that you can't afford 14 days off from.
And what's worse is that there are known things that people can do to protect themselves that have nothing to do with masks, nothing to do with lockdowns and silly ass quarantines and yet this information is not told to the public on a regular basis. Have you seen a "get your daily sunshine" Public service announcement? Have you seen a "Have you supplemented your Vit D Today?" Public service announcement? Have you seen a "Have you had your Zinc today?" Public service announcement? These three things alone would have dramatic impacts on those vulnerable to Wuhan, and yet the public is not informed. Why?
A bottle of 100 tablets of 5000mg D3 is $14.00. A 100 bottle of Zinc 50mg is 13 bucks. Take the D3 once a day and you get 3 months of D. 30 bucks gets you through Fall and Winter. Take Zinc twice a week if you're not sick and that Zinc lasts months. So for $43 you can drastically lower your chances of not only getting a COVID infection, but also lower your chances of having severe issues if you DO get infected. I mean, c'mon people Chris Christie just survived COVID.
So this is what it's going to come down to. Rule by law (and constraint on government) or rule by fear.
Don't have time to comment on it but wanted to get it out there.
Imagine if we had competent leaders who, instead of fining people, forcing them to stay home, shutting down businesses and making masks mandatory, simply got people to get their vitamin D levels up.
An important screengrab:
I have had the displeasure of having to discuss the Wuhan situation with people who follow the MSN and think themselves informed. They like to tell me about projections as if we don't have months of predictions and projections that have been off by orders of magnitude (over). Apparently these fails don't make it to mainstream media outlets so these informed people are well...not that informed. Follow The Ghost and you'll be informed.
Anyway, here's one.
Now look at this nonsense. They have projections with "easing of masks" going up. They have universal mask usage as being flat. Do they not know that Sweden doesn't have and didn't have any mask mandate? You would think that the people making these projections would take into account what is actually going on in a country. These people making projections simply act like mask usage "works" like Pi is 3.14.
This is why you shouldn't take any projection seriously unless you know and understand the underlying assumptions and data.
So The Blaze posted a piece about how ineffective [most] masks are. The report actually comes from the CDC, but I'm giving credit to where I first saw it. Below is the relevant chart
in Sept. 11's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report showed that 85% of those who contracted COVID-19 during July among the study group either "always" or "often" wore face coverings within the 14 days before they were infected. More than 70% of those outpatient individuals who tested positive reported always wearing masks. Just 3.9% reported never wearing a mask.
We can ask a few things about these reports. We can say that the people who said they were wearing masks were lying because they didn't want the disapproval of the questioner. This is not an unlikely thing. We can also hypothesize that the times they didn't wear a mask was the "unlucky" time. But there is another very compelling and more likely answer: The masks they are wearing are not effective.
As I've said before, if you are wearing an N95 masks that completely seals against your face (sorry facial hairs compromise the seal), then this doesn't apply to you. If you are like 90+% of the population wearing the disposable "single use" masks, well, read on.
For some reason people have been made to believe that air somehow only flows in one direction. Apparently, that direction is on the horizontal plane that cannot be deviated from. As I like to ask people when they act a fool about a mask, can you see down your mask? Congratulations you've been infected.
What you need to understand is airflow. Below is a diagram of what air does when it reaches a barrier.
So you see the bar sticking up 90 degrees (straight up)? Think of that as the edge of your mask. Everything to the right of the barrier represents the space between the mask and your face. The circular arrows are where the air goes BEHIND the barrier. Air goes around the barrier. It is not stopped by the barrier. Certainly, the airflow above the barrier is greater than the portion that "falls" behind it but the point is, the air is not stopped. So when you breathe in (and out) air taking the path of least resistance goes out around the sides, top and bottom of your mask.
Think of it. If barriers completely stopped air flow, whenever your drove in your car you would suffocate in short order. The air would be unable to enter the vents (on the hood perpendicular to air flow) and you'd die if you didn't get out.
Congrats, you've been infected.
This is why places that have put mask mandates into place have not seen any drop whatsoever in their cases. Not the UK, Argentina, nowhere.
Mask wearing by otherwise healthy people is a sign of compliance. That's all it is. if you want to protect yourself, get yourself a sufficient amount of Vit D and Zinc. Keep your airways moist (avoid low humidity environments), get good sleep and keep/get yourself to a healthy weight. Wuhan is an opportunistic infection, it looks for certain weaknesses and if you got 'em, you're going to have a hard time.
No, I didn't watch the "debate" last night. I flipped over to see what was being said and was greeted with Harris pushing the Russia collusion hoax. Given that the recently revealed and declassified documents have proven beyond any reasonable doubt, that the Russia hoax was made up by team Clinton for the purposes of smearing Trump. That Brenan knew it was made up. That the Obama admin, including Biden set up Flynn and the entire thing became a coup attempt, anyone mentioning Russia at this point is revealing themselves as ignorant or a total partisan willing to say anything to "win".
So I went back to my reading and soon went to bed.
This AM I ran across a video by Tony Heller in regards to another piece of misinformation bandied about during the "debate"; that wildfires and hurricanes are more prevalent now due to "climate change"
In case of one of two things:
1) YouTube takes down the video because it "contradicts experts".
2) You don't have the time right now to watch the video
Here are three screenshots to underscore the boldness of the lie.
Landfalling hurricanes have been declining since 1800s
1886 was the most active hurricane season in recorded US history (emphasis on recorded since the Earth is a 4.5 billion years old and the US has been around for about 200 of those years. And even if you were a young earth creationist who believes the earth is about 5000 years old, America still hasn't been around all that long.
Lastly, from the NYT:
Person and a spark eh?
4 arrested eh?
And this doesn't even touch the subject of poor land management.
Like I said, I had better things to do than watch misinformation. You're being lied to by "climate scientists" and you're being lied to by "COVID scientists". They know that the vast majority of you will not have the time or inclination to seek out the data. They know that most of you cannot understand the papers they refer to (not a knock on the general public, the general public shouldn't HAVE TO) in order to see how the information in those papers are either being misrepresented or simply don't say what the personality claims it says. And when all else fails, they will simply bar people from posting facts onto social media platforms or ban the poster outright.
So we have the Mayor of NY threatening mostly Jewish neighborhoods with lockdowns due to the increase in cases in their neighborhoods. While I'm not prone to going to bat for Jews of any kind, as they have their own advocates, I do have to object to what I see as targetted harassment of that population with the sole purpose of maintaining a fear narrative.
See these graphs below:
Daily Cases:
New York has essentially "flattened the curve" in respect to cases. It's been flat since June. We were told 15 days to flatten the curve. Done. Why are we harassing people?
Daily Deaths:
You can barely make out the daily deaths at the tail of the graph. If you must know the last number is 18.
1. 8.
Again, Why is the Mayor harassing Jews when the curve is flat and the deaths are statistical noise?
While Brooklyn (Kings County) and Queens has the highest number of new cases, their death counts as of yesterday were 1 and 3 respectively.
Again, why are they being harassed?
Deaths are on the floor. Cases are flat (slight variability from week to week). So unless the data collected by Worldometers is wrong, there is no data or scientific basis for the new lockdowns and all of that.
The government is simply mad that a segment of the population refuses to live in paranoia. Paranoia is when you fear of a thing is greater than it's actual threat to you. That's what's going on in NYC.
I was struck by a comment I saw online in regards to Trump declaring that we should not be afraid of COVID
Besides the fact that none of us elected "public health officials", I was struck by how the reaction to this is a complete 180 from the attitude that was present in 1933 where then president FDR said the following:
So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. And I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. This used to be an ethos of America and Americans. Whatever the task, we don't accept living in fear.
That was then.
FDR also said:
...the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; farmers find no markets for their produce; the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone.
More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence, and an equally great number toil with little return. Only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.
Our greatest primary task is to put people to work. This is no unsolvable problem if we face it wisely and courageously.
There are many ways in which it can be helped, but it can never be helped merely by talking about it. We must act and act quickly.
FDR would be going "against the advice of pubic health officials if he made that speech today.
But that was then when popular sentiment in regards to such speech was:
"Any man who can talk like that in times like these is worthy of every ounce of support a true American has."
I'll remind the reader that at the time FDR made that speech he had been stricken by Polio which at that time had no vaccine.
The chart below shows the numbers of people who developed paralytic polio
You see that there was a peak back in 1955 or so. There were large spikes from 1910 through 1940 before the big one. Paralysis of the leg isn't death but I don't know anyone who would volunteer to get paralyzed and yet society did not shut down (They did remove children from homes and shut pools down during the summers)
Thousands of American children were paralyzed by polio, which is caused by a virus that is usually passed by the fecal-oral route (from feces to mouth), by way of food, water or poor hygiene. Some people infected with the virus did not develop any symptoms but could still transmit the disease.
In about 1 in 200 cases, people with polio developed paralysis, and although some recovered from their paralysis, many of these victims were paralyzed and confined to crutches or wheelchairs for life. Children whose breathing muscles were paralyzed were placed inside a sealed ventilator chamber known as an iron
And yet, life went on. I cannot imagine what would happen today if children started getting paralyzed at rates of 1 in 200.
So in 2020 America, living without fear, which is not the same as living without caution or awareness, is frowned upon by the Smart Set, whereas in the 1930s living without fear was a trait to be admired. Not all change is good.
So I saw some readers going back to older posts on Wuhan and I decided to look at my math post in which I made a mathematical argument for how many deaths we would see. I said:
I did some math against these numbers and found the following:
1) The Mean is: 1116 deaths.
As you can see only China and Italy has deaths above the mean and 2 Standard Deviations from the mean. Mathematically we would consider these two cases to be outlier data that is to be considered suspect. Similarly Germany and South Korea would be considered outliers even though they are well within 1SD of the mean. The math suggests that Spain, France and Iran may be the most likely outcome. Realize with a variance as high as 1.6 million we could still see "large" numbers of deaths. I put large in quotes because next to the world population of 7.8 billion, 1.6 million is not all that much. That may sound cold but that's the numbers.
The Standard Deviation is: 1262
The Margin of Error is: 420.5
Variance: 1,592,094
Well as of this writing, according to worldometers there have been 1,037,517 deaths as of today.
As you can see from the graph below. deaths are growing by 250K every 1.6 months. With three months left in the year that means an expected total mortality for the year of ~1,400,000 which is within the variance I calculated back in March. Assuming that things don't change, you should ask yourself why a blogger who is not an epidemiologist or any other medical expert could calculate, within 200k deaths the total number of worldwide deaths from Wuhan? Also, why did so many experts from "prestigious" institutions get it wrong and continue to get it wrong?
I'd also like to point out that this is not even accounting for the issue of dying with COVID and from COVID. That is, if you were on deaths door and COVID was the last kick, I don't consider you a COVID death. However; if you were otherwise healthy and died of COVID, I DO consider you a COVID death. Also, if you have say Diabetes and are obese but otherwise "healthy" and contracted COVID and died, I'd consider that a COVID death since you weren't waltzing with The Reaper, though you may have scheduled an appointment. This is not how deaths are being recorded so keep that in mind.
Well I'd like to think it's because I play BlackJack to win money. To do so I must be familiar with the math of the game. Not playing by the math literally costs me money. There may be at least one reader who knows when I was losing money so they know how devastating to the bankroll that can be. Since I cannot rely on magical thinking, wishing, Indian Buddahs, lucky charms, rubbing screens, lucky rabbits feet or other things to make my money (currently $20/hour), I must calculate my game and play as calculated. Too many of the people who are selling you bad info do not have to literally worry about being wrong and losing all their money and livelihoods.
Perhaps the CDC and WHO ought to hire some professional gamblers to do their statistics.
I'm posting this because it is important that people, particularly dark skinned people, understand the consequences of vit D deficiency. Here's a good explainer from nutraingredients.com
Dr Davies points out there’s a very specific reason this hormone is important with the COVID-19 virus, due to the mechanism by which it enters our cells.
“It targets a protein spike on cell surfaces called ACE2 which is part of something called the renin-angiotensin system or RAS. Among other things, the RAS regulates blood pressure and inflammatory response. To use a metaphor, it’s like an engine with an accelerator and a brake. To tackle an infection the accelerator is pressed to ramp up inflammatory response to deal with the invading pathogen, but the brake also is depressed to keep things under control.
“When the invasion is dealt with, the accelerator comes off and the brake brings everything down to an idling state again. The ACE2 protein is the brake, but ACE2 is depleted as the virus replicates which effectively breaks the brake. With only an accelerator, the RAS quickly runs out of control leading to cytokine storm, out-of-control inflammation and the lungs fill up causing pneumonia. This is what kills people. Vitamin D helps here by keeping the accelerator under control by suppressing a mechanism further upstream that activates it.
“We also know that the ACE2 receptors are normally ‘invisible’ when the RAS is in its idle state, as they ACE2 receptors form a bound complex with another cell receptor. This complex comes apart during the inflammatory response when ACE2 is needed, but this also makes it visible to the virus. Vitamin D helps to keep the RAS calm so that ACE2 remains hidden.”
This is why The Ghost tries to do his running between 10AM and 2PM when the sun is strongest (except in summer) and supplements D in the fall through spring. Melanin in the skin refracts UV radiation which is why black people aren't [as] susceptible to developing skin cancer and conversely why red headed white people are VERY susceptible to developing skin cancer. However; the cost of that protection is that it takes a lot more sun exposure time to make Vit D. In Africa or other equatorial locations, this isn't usually a problem. but in extreme northern and southern latitudes, such as the northern US, Europe, the available sunlight is far less and the additional clothing worn reduces the amount of skin available to make vit. D
So if you find yourself in one of these climate zones take a Vit D supplement. Take your Zinc and if you're likely to be around a crowd of people, hit your mouth with some oil of Oregano. Not that these things will make you invincible and unable to get sick. No, it helps you keep [some] diseases from hitting you hard and may just keep you out of the hospital and the attendant bills.
So I wake up this morning and find out that Trump has tested positive for Wuhan. This is unsurprising due to the recent news about Hope Hicks. But we do know that this isn't the first time Trump has been in contact with someone infected with CV. So here are some things to consider for the next 5 weeks.
5 weeks is the usual window between infection and death, if the infected is going to die. So this means that if we're going to have a president Pence, it's going to happen by November. This does put a twist on the Supreme Court confirmation since Pence would be the person casting any tie breaking vote. I don't believe he can do that if he is president.
Second consideration is that Trump has two issues that are typical of people with severe cases of CV: He is obese (carries his weight around his middle) and he is old. He isn't in his 80's so he's not in the highest risk group but still, he's not in the below 50 group either. We haven't heard of him having any metabolic diseases like diabetes so that goes in his favour.
Thirdly, were likely to get a very public experience with Zinc+ Hydroxychloroquine. As I've said a few times now, Zinc+ HCQ is NOT a cure, it is something that keeps CV from replicating in the cells so that the person's immune system can mount a defense that doesn't result in the deadly inflammation that is the cause of death of those who succumb. So knowing this, Trump's positive PCR result means very little in regards to his actual health at this point. No, as of this writing he isn't sick. Trump is only infected.
Trump has already said that he takes Zinc. He didn't mention HCQ. I would assume that is being added now as he is very aware of the Zelenko protocol. In anycase, symptoms, if they arise, will arise within 14 days (Oct 16). If he's going to have a rough time (or worse) we will know by then.
I'm going to assume that the next debate is currently on hold. If he has to be hospitalized then there will be no more debates. If he is hospitalized, the public would have to seriously consider whether they like Pence enough to vote him into office over Biden. I'm not sure the Republican and/or Trump base is all THAT excited about Pence to come out to the polls. That is, without Trump, are R's that much against the Biden-Harris ticket that they'd show up? Right now it's a PRO Trump motivation rather than a No Biden motivation. Again this is hypothetical.
The data shows that in all likelihood Trump is asymptomatic and will come out of whatever quarantine he's put under without any ill effects. That's the most likely outcome by FAR. The only thing that does not make it a near certainty is his age and obesity.
A very informative video of a panel discussion on the interplay of Covid and the Constitution. Robert Barnes brings up the recent PA decision against the PA government lockdown rules. I did not know that the state actually argued that the American people have no right to make a living.
No right to make a living.
Some government agent actually argued that in court and thought it was a good and possibly winning argument.
Back in March of 2017 I asked the following question:
When Will The Adults Regain Control?
There I wrote, in part:
This is what we are dealing with. The worst part here is that such an attitude is apparently prevalent on a university campus where reading primary sources and doing research on ideas "good" or "bad" is supposed to be a requirement of education. When you have a mass of students who are protesting a presentation of someone's work whom they have not read it is a failure of the administration.
Students entering an institution of "higher education" should be informed in no uncertain terms that while they have freedom of speech and congregation, they will be removed from campus for disrupting sanctioned events without appeal. To be fair, the first time should be warning, a second a semester suspension without refund of any fees and the third a lifetime expulsion from said institution. There are cameras all over campuses these days so it is easy to find out who has done what.
Though I was speaking of education, my thinking applies to businesses. I'd go further and say that businesses should be exceptionally strict in this regard. You're employed to do work FOR the business. The business doesn't exist to do the bidding or wishes of the employees. If an employee doesn't like it, they should be out. Pronto.
And so we come to Coinbase
Coinbase is offering to pay employees who decide to quit the cryptocurrency company after it discouraged employee activism and discussing of political and social issues at work.
CEO Brian Armstrong told Coinbase staff in an email that the company would offer severance packages for anyone “who doesn’t feel comfortable with this new direction.” The pay packages range from four to six months, depending on how long an employee had been with the company.