I'm still waiting for the official outcome before I do my explainer of the election. If you read my material regularly you'll know I made a prediction some time ago and soon we'll know if it becomes fact. So the reason I'm posting this is because a reader sent a note asking a question which I figure I'd answer here. In short the reader was wondering what the deal was with the Cuban and Venezuelans (and to an extend Puerto Ricans) in Florida who went for Trump in much larger numbers than 2016.
"[was] this is an anomaly powered exclusively by the personal magnetism of Trump, or if the GOP has the wherewithal to build on the bounty of minority support Trump delivered this year. Is the socialist demographic timebomb still a foregone conclusion?"
So let me say at the outset that I do not follow any Latin media at all. While I'm not averse to using Google translate, I'm not that motivated about it. I don't have latinos in my circle except for a Cubano who I work with whom we share political stuff from time to time. Generally speaking I'm a "keep your politics and religion out the f***ing office, and keep it on topic and professional" person. But for people I deem sane (that is we can disagree without being hostile and provide evidence for our positions) I'll have limited conversations with.
All that to say that I have very little first person info I can draw from that comes from that community to make a good comment. So what follows is a general 1st generation immigrant commentary sprinkled with what I gathered from my Cubano workmate.
One of the common things that I saw when I was growing up was that people from the West Indies looked down on African-Americans. Indeed many times we were discouraged from being friends with them due to the fear of bad influences. The general idea was that American blacks were lazy and did not appreciate the great deal of opportunities available to them. They were always complaining about racism, and then going about and doing dumb BS.
I don't think this attitude is or was limited to those from the West Indies. So this is the first thing in explaining Florida. These immigrants and their first generation know about hard times and WHAT kind of system of governing made their countries "shit holes". They don't want to live with that HERE in America. You don't want that either but some of you are going to learn that the hard way.
The BLM -Antifa connection
Again, the idea of street mobs using violence to get their way, many immigrants are very familiar with this kind of stuff and it rarely ends well in their home country. The burning and looting? That's not the America these people came to take a part in. That Democrats embraced these things made the choice to vote for. Trump easy.
At the same time you have to recognize the numbers of Latinos who voted Dem. Why? Having not seen the returns, I can only guess, but I'd say that a large percentage of those persons are 2nd gen who only heard stories of what happened back in the "old country' and so just don't know how bad it is. They have no visceral reaction to socialism. Indeed from videos I've seen of Miami teachers, they are taught that socialism isn't bad and wherever the bad things happened it was because it wasn't "real" socialism.
A lot of radicals are down with the NEW AND IMPROVED "real" socialism, right up to the point where they have a major policy disagreement with it's leadership and find out what happens to dissidents. Notice how the Miami PD dealt with BLM-Antifa attempts to riot in that city. Portland it was not. Even in other places where BLM-Antifa tried their stuff, when they hit Latino neighborhoods a lot of them got confronted by residents who were not having it. It's hard to pull the lever for the D candidate when you see them support that kind of activity.
Having dealt with policy issues lets move to Trump himself.
Obama compared to Trump is and was quite effeminate. And I'm not trying to insult Obama. But for cultures that admire machismo and manliness, something the US is fast losing in the general sense, this is important. Let me give you an example.
Obama [often] crosses his legs when he sits. Trump does not. As a man I cannot stand to see men cross their legs. I don't find it sophisticated or classy. To me it says my balls are small so I can smash them between my thighs. Men open their legs partly due to our narrower pelvises, which makes it more natural to spread rather than close legs and because we have a package in there. Generally speaking the open legs is a display of sexual capability, machismo and aggressiveness. If you're from a culture that values these things in men, rather than from a culture that denigrates masculinity and calls it "toxic" Trump's "displays" are positive. I noted that in a post back in 2017
Lastly to the issue of the GOP.
I've written in the recent past that the GOP is a dead party walking. In just my lifetime they have allowed 4 red states to turn blue (VA, CO, PA, CO). They are on the cusp of losing GA and TX. Once those two go, no Republican will hold executive office in America until or unless the Dem coalition splits up and/or white Democrats leave the party entirely OR their population drops to such an extent that [ non-Hispanic]white voters become irrelevant.
Every day Republicans die and less than replacement Republicans come of age. On the other side, Old Democrats die and are replaced by young ones AND ones granted citizenship or inherited citizenship via birthright who wants to represent for their parents.
You think if Biden is president and Dems manage to get the amnesty and "path to citizenship" they have been talking about, that the recipients of such largesse won't vote for the party that did that for them? You think their children won't vote for them either?
The GOP is a dead party walking regardless of how this election turns out. A Trump win may slow the process but it's not stopping.
Oh and one more thing. Anyone paying attention knows that most Republicans and so called "conservatives" have positions that were considered "left wing" just 10 years ago. A Republican transported from say 1970 wouldn't recognize much of what is called the Republican party. To be fair, they wouldn't recognize the Democratic party either. Well they would but they would call them commies.
So that's my take on the Cubanos and Venzuelans in Florida (and elsewhere).