Monday, June 08, 2020
Will Trump Get A Nixon Wave From The Protests and Riots?
I don't think so. I've seen a lot of smart commentary pointing back to how Nixon swept with the "silent majority" that responded very negatively to the riots they witnessed. If America had both 1968 demographics as well as 1968 attitudes I would say that one should expect a Trump landslide. But I don't foresee that at all.
Here's a graph of the changing demographics of the US as a whole:
As you can see the white population in the US has shrunk from near 90% in 1950 to 72% in 2010 and I'm certain that the white population has contracted further as of 2020. If we assume a 3% contraction based on the previous 10 years, then the white population as on election day 2020 would be 69% and likely less.
Add on top of that white elderly people are historically Republican. The Wuhan virus has taken a scythe to that population country wide. I'm not going to call it a conspiracy that governors just happened to put sick people into places where white elderly people are likely to be. I'm just saying...
Trump won his last election on the slimmest of slim margins. Sheer demographics has him losing unless some largely absent and invisible white voting block shows up out the blue. History is not favorable of such an event.
Of further consideration is that Democrat or Republican, US citizens were by far anti-riot, anti-communist, anti-socialist of any stripe, pro borders and anti-illegal immigration. What some would consider "sane". This kind of unanimity is long gone. Open socialists are in the federal government and those who are not open socialists make socialistic policy statements without so much as stuttering. Well except Joe Biden.
This past week we have seen police and military personnel bowing to protestors. Never would have happened in 1968. We've seen white people washing black peoples feet in public. Never would have happened in 1968. The white population in America is fractured and generally speaking lacking in self-respect. It's as if a large percentage of white people are incapable of having self-respect AND not be racist. Yes it is quite possible (and desirable) for white people to have self-respect and also not treat black people as sacred objects and/or children incapable of self-control and agency. But I digress.
No, The forces arrayed against those, white and non-white who refuse to take part in the new BLM religious cult (that's what it is) and see the long run communist game for what it is has to face fare greater consequences than those of 1968. Sure there will be "backlash" in certain quarters of the country. But I see nothing to indicate Trump will be "gifted" with a landslide because there are far more people out there that simply hate Trump and even if it means they have to deal with crazy shit from Democrats, they will do so just to be rid of the man. That is, they think this mob (and I'm not just talking about the ones in the streets) can be negotiated with. Indeed this mob WILL present themselves as amenable to negotiation. It's short term though. Remember, homosexuals just wanted to be left alone in the privacy of their homes. See where that went.
So no, I don't see Trump winning a landslide due to the recent events. As a matter of fact Trump is looking more and more like a one term president in part due to what has been done to him as well as his failure to do the things he promised to do.