Thursday, January 12, 2012

Conspiracy Theory or Not?

Many years ago, January 2004 to precise I discussed the economic reasons for the US going into Afghanistan:

the bases more importantly, improved "American access to Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas," and extended "US influence to a region hitherto dominated by Russia and of constant concern to China (4)." The bases in essence paved the way for America to gain a foothold in a globally strategic region thereby putting it in a better position to compete with Russia and China for the great oil treasures of the Caspian Sea.


In addition to being the world's largest lake, the Caspian sea is believed to hold vast oil reserves comparable to those of the Middle East. Yet, unlike the Middle East, transport of the extracted black gold from the landlocked lake to the open sea is a major hurdle. Therefore, the primary issue guiding the politics of the region revolve around not ownership of oil, rather control of the proposed pipelines by which the oil is transported5. It is within this context that Uzbekistan has emerged as "the key strategic state in the area (5)."


The need for this strategic ownership of oil AND the means to get it to market lead the US to deal with both the Taliban as well as form strategic alliances with Pakistan.

March
Turkmenistan's Foreign Minister Sheikh Muradov meets with Mullah Omar in Kandahar to discuss pipeline.

April
Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Taliban sign agreement to revive pipeline project.



Now let's look at a recent report from the NY Times

The United Arab Emirates has nearly completed an oil export pipeline from Abu Dhabi, on the Gulf, to the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz...

The project aims to “offset reliance on Arabian Gulf oil terminals...

“Iran’s potential ability to close the choke point is a key trump card that could give it the upper hand” in its face-off with the United States and its allies....

, analysts say completion of the Abu Dhabi pipeline would be a positive step toward greater supply security.


Notice the talk of "security" in many of the comments in the piece. Not really all that different from that discussed in January of 2004. And just think about it. Why even consider such a pipeline to bypass the straight unless one expected some event that could disrupt traffic through that point? How long ago was this devised? Who's been plotting and for how long?


Looking at a map of the region



Look where Iran sits in relationship to today's NYT report and my January 2004 entry.

Clearly those in charge are doing whatever that can to route as much oil around Iran which would, if it were "friendly" be the logical means to pass oil from the Caspian sea into the established ports in the Persian Gulf.

You don't think so? Then why do you think the US is admitting to discussions with the Taliban? And who's at the table?

Over the last year, Marc Grossman, a veteran but low-key diplomat, led a small team of American officials who met secretly from Doha, Qatar, to Munich with a shadowy representative of Afghanistan’s Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, in hopes of starting peace talks.


The same Mullah Omar I told you about back in 2004.

Don't mind me though.