Garvey's Ghost: Black Talk

Palast, Ohio, and the Real Court Case

Greg Palasts assertions that Kerry took Ohio (and New Mexico) have taken off on the blogospher and news programs. He has been a guest on Like It Ism with Gil Noble and has had his assertions repeated by many other writers. I have gone on record that I think that his assertion is simply a guess and we won't know the truth until or unless all the votes are counted. Anything else is mere speculation.

The Black Commentator ran a think piece that asseted, like many others that the exit polls were right and that their divergence from the official outcome is a sign of tampering. Let's address this:

1) When Douglas Wilder was running for governor of Virginia in 1989, Exit polls had Wilder up by 10%. He actually won by 1%.

2) When David Dinkins was running for Mayor of NYC against Guiliani, exit polls had him ahead by 8 points. In the end Dinkins won by 1%. another.

I could do like Greg palast and say that exit polls can be wrong by a stunning 900-800% . I could say that exit polls can be wrong by 8x-9x the actual outcome. It would stirr up all kinds of emotions but wouldn't address the real issue. Exit polls can be wrong. No exit poll can force people to actully participate or tell the truth. Thus those who repeatedly claim exit polls to be infallible also have bridges to sell.

Let's go back to the "missing votes." As indicated before Greg Palast and other say there are some 240,000 missing votes, 90,000+ of these would be spoiled ballots. that is they had hanging chads, dimples, multiple votes, or some other "Problem." ther remaining 154,000 were provisional ballots. here's what has been said about these:

Unofficial Ohio presidential results provided by the Secretary of State’s Office show 155,428 provisional ballots cast. Blackwell was all over the national news telling everyone who would listen that these ballots were randomly distributed and not disproportionately for Kerry. As former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani raved on national TV demanding Kerry’s concession, a basic analysis of the provisional ballots suggested that they were disproportionately for Kerry.

Historically, provisional ballots are far more likely to be cast by poor and minority voters, who live in the urban centers and move more often. Ohio has 88 counties, the vast majority of them rural. Kerry won 15 counties in Ohio, virtually all large urban centers. In those counties, 85,096 provisional ballots remain uncounted. Past elections point to the fact that these provisional ballots are hardly ever cast in the affluent, primarily Republican municipalities, but are overwhelmingly from the central city. Also, an additional 17,038 provisional ballots are from Hamilton County and Wood County. Bush won Hamilton with 53% of the vote and Wood County with 53.5%. Traditionally, the provisional ballots in Hamilton County come from Cincinnati and its poor central city areas. These are areas where John Kerry won handily on Election Day.

Thus, 102,134 of the provisional ballots, nearly two-thirds (65.7%) in all probability come from solidly pro-Kerry areas and are most likely cast by pro-Kerry supporters such as African Americans and the poor. These fit the same socio-economic demographics and racial profiles of voters targeted by the GOP for challenges in Ohio.

Palast also points to the 92,672 so-called “spoiled” ballots in Ohio that have yet to be counted, and may never be tallied. The most famous spoiled ballots were the 2000 Florida punch cards that could not be machine read, but when looked at manually the voter’s intent could be determined. Expert statisticians who investigated spoilage in the 2000 election in Florida found that 54% of these discarded ballots were cast by blacks. In Ohio, most of the spoiled votes were lost through punch card ballots in 2004.

The above was written by Bob Fitrakis of Columbus State Community College.

Let's take a look at some things here: Ohio has 88 counties or which Kerry won 15. It is claimed that these are all "large urban centers." Let's look at the 2000 census figures:

So here's the black population of areas with predominant (50% or more) black populations.


Bedford Heights city, Cuyahoga County: 67.4% black : 7666.75

Cleveland city, Cuyahoga County: 51% Black: 243685

East Cleveland city, Cuyahoga County 93.4% black :25420

Forest Park city, Hamilton County: 56.3% black: 10957.669

Fort McKinley CDP, Montgomery County: 53.2% black: 2122.148

Golf Manor village, Hamilton County: 63% black: 2519.37

Highland Hills village, Cuyahoga County: 65.1% black: 1053.318

Lincoln Heights village, Hamilton County: 98% black: 4030.74

Maplewood Park CDP, Trumbull County; 58.3% Black:187.143

North Randall village, Cuyahoga County: 71.7% black: 649.602

Oakwood village, Cuyahoga County: 56.2% black: 2060.854

Silverton city, Hamilton County: 50.3% black: 2604.534

Trotwood city, Montgomery County: 58.3% black :15985.86

Urbancrest village, Franklin County: 57.9% black: 502

Warrensville Heights city, Cuyahoga County: 90.4% black: 13658.536

Wilberforce CDP, Greene County: 84.2% black: 1329.518

Woodlawn village, Hamilton County: 68.4% black:1926.144

Woodmere village, Cuyahoga County 49.6% black (more blacks than whites by 10%) :410.688

Youngstown city:43.8% black (I've been there and it's a pretty big city for Ohio):35927

Only Cleveland has a huge black population and only 3 other counties have black populations that are over 10,000.

Let's also look at where the provisional ballots were cast (http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html ):

Provisional Ballots cast by county (Percent of Total):
Cuyahoga: 24788 (16%)
Hamilton county: 14386:(9%)
Wood: 2655 (1.73%)
Trumbull: 2700 (1.7%)
Montgomery:9,227 (6%)
Greene 2127 (1.3%)
Franklin: 14446 (9%)

Total: 153,329


lets look at this table showing the total votes cast by county, the number of provisional ballots and the proportion of the black population for these counties:

County Name	Total Precincts	Total Registered Voters	Total Votes Cast	Percentage of Votes Cast	Provisional Ballots Issued	% Black Population (2000)	Projected Black vote Turnout based on Population and votes cast	Predicted White Vote
Adams	35	17,696	12,094	68.34	184	0.20%	24	12,070
Allen	139	68,174	48,121	70.59	1,374	12.20%	5,871	42,250
Ashland	65	34,847	25,171	72.23	629	0.80%	201	24,970
Ashtabula	127	62,926	45,474	72.27	1,142	3.20%	1,455	44,019
Athens	69	45,100	27,960	62	2,504	2.40%	671	27,289
Auglaize	39	33,094	22,528	68.07	647	0.20%	45	22,483
Belmont	83	44,452	33,452	75.25	1,067	3.60%	1,204	32,248
Brown	35	28,922	20,030	69.26	326	0.90%	180	19,850
Butler	289	238,117	163,668	68.73	5,793	5.30%	8,674	154,994
Carroll	26	20,076	14,172	70.59	304	0.50%	71	14,101
Champaign	29	25,376	18,564	73.16	555	2.30%	427	18,137
Clark	100	89,683	68,883	76.81	1,279	8.90%	6,131	62,752
Clermont	191	125,823	88,019	69.95	1,818	0.90%	792	87,227
Clinton	32	25,092	18,177	72.44	378	2.20%	400	17,777
Columbiana	103	78,536	49,249	62.71	1,085	2.20%	1,083	48,166
Coshocton	43	22,679	17,331	76.42	277	1.10%	191	17,140
Crawford	46	29,591	21,906	74.03	424	0.60%	131	21,775
Cuyahoga	1,436	1,005,807	665,334	66.15	24,788	27.40%	182,302	483,032
Darke	43	38,290	26,379	68.89	710	0.40%	106	26,273
Defiance	42	25,847	18,169	70.29	672	1.80%	327	17,842
Delaware	123	100,676	79,691	79.16	1,891	2.50%	1,992	77,699
Erie	62	55,517	39,690	71.49	972	8.60%	3,413	36,277
Fairfield	118	91,498	67,632	73.92	1,306	2.70%	1,826	65,806
Fayette	38	16,093	11,704	72.73	293	2.10%	246	11,458
Franklin	788	845,720	515,472	60.95	14,446	17.90%	92,269	423,203
Fulton	35	28,561	21,902	76.69	381	0.20%	44	21,858
Gallia	35	23,567	13,944	59.17	574	2.70%	376	13,568
Geauga	96	65,393	51,286	78.43	668	1.20%	615	50,671
Greene	142	105,079	77,830	74.07	2,127	6.40%	4,981	72,849
Guernsey	37	27,129	16,570	61.08	558	1.50%	249	16,321
Hamilton	1,013	573,612	418,001	72.87	14,386	23.40%	97,812	320,189
Hancock	62	49,607	35,087	70.73	791	1.10%	386	34,701
Hardin	38	18,921	13,146	69.48	349	0.70%	92	13,054
Harrison	24	11,769	8,410	71.46	89	2.20%	185	8,225
Henry	33	19,685	15,188	77.16	250	0.60%	91	15,097
Highland	31	28,243	18,323	64.88	494	1.50%	275	18,048
Hocking	32	18,378	13,258	72.14	251	0.90%	119	13,139
Holmes	19	18,089	11,542	63.81	170	0.30%	35	11,507
Huron	55	37,436	25,584	68.34	670	1.00%	256	25,328
Jackson	38	23,997	14,332	59.72	422	0.60%	86	14,246
Jefferson	91	49,655	36,528	73.56	650	5.70%	2,082	34,446
Knox	56	36,971	26,661	72.11	689	0.70%	187	26,474
Lake	217	160,165	119,657	74.71	1,975	2.00%	2,393	117,264
Lawrence	84	41,424	27,876	67.29	599	2.10%	585	27,291
Licking	122	111,387	78,876	70.81	1,565	2.10%	1,656	77,220
Logan	52	29,406	21,135	71.87	650	1.70%	359	20,776
Lorain	239	196,601	139,069	70.74	4,134	8.50%	11,821	127,248
Lucas	495	302,136	216,453	71.64	6,719	17.00%	36,797	179,656
Madison	44	23,477	17,451	74.33	392	6.20%	1,082	16,369
Mahoning	312	194,673	131,938	67.77	2,717	15.90%	20,978	110,960
Marion	84	43,323	28,762	66.39	928	5.70%	1,639	27,123
Medina	149	118,330	84,725	71.6	1,266	0.90%	763	83,962
Meigs	27	15,205	10,813	71.11	240	0.70%	76	10,737
Mercer	37	31,306	20,478	65.41	931	0.10%	20	20,458
Miami	82	72,169	50,562	70.06	1,609	2.00%	1,011	49,551
Monroe	29	10,350	7,857	75.91	132	0.30%	24	7,833
Montgomery	588	391,914	279,801	71.39	9,227	19.90%	55,680	224,121
Morgan	22	9,358	6,770	72.34	160	3.40%	230	6,540
Morrow	36	24,249	16,403	67.64	314	0.30%	49	16,354
Muskingum	85	51,552	38,817	75.3	871	4.00%	1,552	37,265
Noble	27	8,879	6,715	75.63	75	6.70%	450	6,265
Ottawa	78	30,251	23,052	76.2	469	0.60%	138	22,914
Paulding	30	14,226	9,881	69.46	243	1.00%	99	9,782
Perry	46	23,480	15,328	65.28	428	0.20%	31	15,297
Pickaway	53	30,045	22,579	75.15	553	6.40%	1,445	21,134
Pike	24	19,661	12,708	64.64	285	0.90%	114	12,594
Portage	129	109,565	76,306	69.64	1,445	3.20%	2,442	73,864
Preble	45	28,137	21,226	75.44	493	0.30%	64	21,162
Putnam	35	24,572	18,948	77.11	246	0.20%	38	18,910
Richland	126	95,359	61,907	64.92	1,357	9.40%	5,819	56,088
Ross	76	43,463	31,402	72.25	563	6.20%	1,946	29,456
Sandusky	72	39,408	32,433	82.3	760	2.70%	875	31,558
Scioto	106	48,012	35,317	73.56	867	2.70%	953	34,364
Seneca	54	37,974	27,148	71.49	494	1.80%	488	26,660
Shelby	35	28,460	22,688	79.72	791	1.50%	304	22,384
Stark	364	267,939	186,252	69.51	6,653	7.20%	13,410	172,842
Summit	475	368,858	275,551	74.7	5,932	13.20%	36,372	239,179
Trumbull	274	142,548	108,533	76.14	2,700	7.90%	8,574	99,959
Tuscarawas	81	55,656	42,871	77.03	987	0.70%	300	42,571
Union	46	30,200	22,515	74.55	436	9.40%	2,116	20,399
Van Wert	39	21,100	15,252	72.28	297	0.70%	107	15,145
Vinton	20	8,527	6,059	71.06	129	0.40%	24	6,035
Warren	157	125,919	93,321	74.11	1,465	2.70%	2,520	90,801
Washington	56	40,881	29,707	72.67	643	0.90%	267	29,440
Wayne	97	69,672	51,898	74.49	818	1.60%	830	51,068
Williams	44	26,772	18,324	68.44	694	0.70%	128	18,196
Wood	105	91,492	61,865	67.62	2,655	1.30%	804	61,061
Wyandot	24	15,834	10,785	68.11	138	0.10%	11	10,774
TOTAL	11,360	7,979,639	5,574,476	69.86	155,428		635,291

Onto Part II