Days Black People Not Re-Enslaved By Trump

Saturday, October 17, 2020

Not Acceptable

 

I didn't watch either "town hall" events. I heard the next day about Biden's response about an 8 year old who think (or the mother thinks) is a tranny and Biden was fine with the idea that an 8 year old should "decide" to be transexual.

Never mind that 8 year olds can't even give consent to sex.

I keep telling people, for me it's not about liking Trump the person. I simply do not agree with the DNC platform. Period. This is an example of what will never have me support any DNC candidate who doesn't condemn this and other lefty nonsense. The Democratic Party that I grew up with would never have even considered such a thing. 

Terms and Percentages

 Months ago I read somewhere that people overestimate "often" and "likely" so this minor post is about how to use and evaluate these terms when discussing the odds of events (like dying of the Wuhan virus).

"Impossible":

So assume we have 100 events and out of the 100 none of the outcomes meets our criteria, whatever they are. This is a case of "impossible". This is the "can't happen" scenario.

"Rare":

Same 100 events but this time out of the 100 we have 1 event that meets our criteria. This is called a rare case. Sometimes referred to as an 'outlier".  These are events that though not impossible, happen so infrequently that they are not generally something you expect to happen at any given time. Yes, you'd be surprised to see it BUT it's not something you concern yourself with.

"Sometimes":

Same 100 events but this time the criterion event happens 10 times. This is sometimes. It's not impossible, it's not really rare but you should be aware that it will come up from time to time. Still events not meeting the criterion will happen far more often.

"Often":

Same 100 events but this time 40 criteria fitting events occur. This is often. It cannot be ignored. Still there are more times than not that this event does NOT happen. You'd be a fool though if you treated it like a "rare" or "sometime" event.

"50-50"

Obviously this is break even. criteria event happens half the time.

"More likely than not":

Here we cross the 50% threshold. In these cases the criteria event happens most of the time vs. other outcomes. You should *expect* this outcome when confronted with the situation. Note that even though this event is expected the incidences of non-criteria events is in "often" territory and you should keep that in mind.

"Near certainty":

In this case, the criteria event is in the 90 out of 100 category. This could also be considered "within the margin of error". In such a case you would put your money on this event "all day, every day". Sometimes the non-criteria event will appear.

"100%"

Obviously this happens all the time. There is no "rare" event. No other possibility exists. The word "definitely" can be used here since "definitive" is 100%. This is why when discussing things like future COVID deaths, making declaratory/definitive statements is a sign that the speaker doesn't understand statistics. 

"Give or take...":

This is a lay term for "variance". So if we look at the "rare" case we would say: "10 times out of a 100 give or take..." this is recognizing that things rarely fall into neat patterns. It won't be 10x every time, but over the long haul the events will converge on that.

Did you know that the engine temperature dial/indicator in your car doesn't actually show the temperature of your engine? Nope. The temperature of the coolant in your engine constantly varies. If it showed you in real time, the needle would be bouncing all over the place. Instead the computer averages out the temps and puts the needle where that average falls.

So keep these things in mind when watching news reports of the pandemic. Do the word they use match the data? Are they overstating the issue? Understating the issue?

Friday, October 16, 2020

Constitutional Republicanism or Socialism

 The Wuhan Pandemic has shown the world that much of America doesn't believe in, or operate under the freedom and democracy that it claims to want to export to the world.  When push became shove, much of the US "leadership" dumped the constitution and the natural rights of man(kind) and copied the Chinese Communist Party and allowed governors to run their states as quasi-dictatorships where small cabals of officials got together to determine who's job was important enough to be considered essential, to impose travel restrictions, to criminalize behavior such as walking around, driving to a fro. Gathering with friends and family on and in your private property, etc. 

They told businesses they could not open and openly argued in court that you have no right to "make a living". For anyone who has not been paying attention for years, such a thing is surprising but for the rest of us, it is the expected expansion of Nanny Statism, the "western" version of Communism. Nanny Statism's main means of controlling the population, once it gets control of the levers of power is the power of fear. Everything is couched in "for your safety" or "for the safety of others". If someone doesn't feel "safe" then the state has carte blanche to step in and do whatever it likes. Since the legal process is slow and expensive, the victim of state aggression has little means to counter the state, except perhaps violence, but individual violence against the state never succeeds.  But this isn't a thesis about violence, Frantz Fanon did that work already. No, this is a comparison between a governor who understands Constitutional Republicanism and a governor who is effectively a Communist.

First, watch this video of the governor of South Dakota and note how she made decisions about what she could and could not do and how she regarded the people she was elected to execute laws for



I will note that Hillsdale College has had some very good presentations and you should watch them in your free time.

Now, listen to NY Governor Andrew Cuomo discuss what's going on in NYS.


Here Cuomo admits that the actions taken in NY are not based on science but on fear. I've already shown that despite the rise in cases in NY, the death rates have remained flat (though they will go up due to seasonality, meaning regular things like low humidity and vit D deficiency due to lack of sunlight will increase all respiratory diseases and yes, deaths). 

And lets be clear, the Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods with the increased cases are not living in fear. THEY are not afraid and THAT bothers Di Blasio and Cuomo. They want the NYC public to be afraid because there are CASES even though the deaths are extremely low.

This is a stark contrast. One state is being run by a cabal that is using fear to control the population and another is sticking to the founding principles (sans slavery) to allow people to make informed decisions.

I'd move to South Dakota if it was located say around Virginia/North Carolina. I have no appetite for north mid-west winters. Not one bit. Been there and done that.

People are being fined and potentially arrested and jailed for silly ass quarantine rules that rule out travel to 80% of the country if you have a job that you can't afford 14 days off from.

And what's worse is that there are known things that people can do to protect themselves that have nothing to do with masks, nothing to do with lockdowns and silly ass quarantines and yet this information is not told to the public on a regular basis. Have you seen a "get your daily sunshine" Public service announcement? Have you seen a "Have you supplemented your Vit D Today?" Public service announcement? Have you seen a "Have you had your Zinc today?" Public service announcement? These three things alone would have dramatic impacts on those vulnerable to Wuhan, and yet the public is not informed.  Why?

A bottle of 100 tablets of 5000mg D3 is $14.00. A 100 bottle of Zinc 50mg is 13 bucks. Take the D3 once a day and you get 3 months of D. 30 bucks gets you through Fall and Winter. Take Zinc twice a week if you're not sick and that Zinc lasts months. So for $43 you can drastically lower your chances of not only getting a COVID infection, but also lower your chances of having severe issues if you DO get infected. I mean, c'mon people Chris Christie just survived COVID.


So this is what it's going to come down to. Rule by law (and constraint on government) or rule by fear. 

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Important Video on Vit D and COVID mortality

 Don't have time to comment on it but wanted to get it out there.



Imagine if we had competent leaders who, instead of fining people, forcing them to stay home, shutting down businesses and making masks mandatory, simply got people to get their vitamin D levels up.

An important screengrab:




Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Why You Should Be VERY Wary Of "Projections"

 I have had the displeasure of having to discuss the Wuhan situation with people who follow the MSN and think themselves informed. They like to tell me about projections as if we don't have months of predictions and projections that have been off by orders of magnitude (over). Apparently these fails don't make it to mainstream media outlets so these informed people are well...not that informed. Follow The Ghost and you'll be informed. 

Anyway, here's one.


Now look at this nonsense. They have projections with "easing of masks" going up. They have universal mask usage as being flat. Do they not know that Sweden doesn't have and didn't have any mask mandate? You would think that the people making these projections would take into account what is actually going on in a country. These people making projections simply act like mask usage "works" like Pi is 3.14. 

This is why you shouldn't take any projection seriously unless you know and understand the underlying assumptions and data.

Why your non-N95 Mask is Not Working

 So The Blaze posted a piece about how ineffective [most] masks are.  The report actually comes from the CDC, but I'm giving credit to where I first saw it. Below is the relevant chart


in Sept. 11's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report showed that 85% of those who contracted COVID-19 during July among the study group either "always" or "often" wore face coverings within the 14 days before they were infected. More than 70% of those outpatient individuals who tested positive reported always wearing masks. Just 3.9% reported never wearing a mask.

We can ask a few things about these reports. We can say that the people who said they were wearing masks were lying because they didn't want the disapproval of the questioner. This is not an unlikely thing. We can also hypothesize that the times they didn't wear a mask was the "unlucky" time.  But there is another very compelling and more likely answer: The masks they are wearing are not effective.

As I've said before, if you are wearing an N95 masks that completely seals against your face (sorry facial hairs compromise the seal), then this doesn't apply to you. If you are like 90+% of the population wearing the disposable "single use" masks, well, read on.

For some reason people have been made to believe that air somehow only flows in one direction. Apparently, that direction is on the horizontal plane that cannot be deviated from. As I like to ask people when they act a fool about a mask, can you see down your mask? Congratulations you've been infected.

What you need to understand is airflow. Below is a diagram of what air does when it reaches a barrier.


So you see the bar sticking up 90 degrees (straight up)? Think of that as the edge of your mask. Everything to the right of the barrier represents the space between the mask and your face. The circular arrows are where the air goes BEHIND the barrier. Air goes around the barrier. It is not stopped by the barrier.  Certainly, the airflow above the barrier is greater than the portion that "falls" behind it but the point is, the air is not stopped. So when you breathe in (and out) air taking the path of least resistance goes out around the sides, top and bottom of your mask. 

Think of it. If barriers completely stopped air flow, whenever your drove in your car you would suffocate in short order. The air would be unable to enter the vents (on the hood perpendicular to air flow) and you'd die if you didn't get out.

Congrats, you've been infected.

This is why places that have put mask mandates into place have not seen any drop whatsoever in their cases. Not the UK, Argentina, nowhere. 

Mask wearing by otherwise healthy people is a sign of compliance. That's all it is. if you want to protect yourself, get yourself a sufficient amount of Vit D and Zinc. Keep your airways moist (avoid low humidity environments), get good sleep and keep/get yourself to a healthy weight. Wuhan is an opportunistic infection, it looks for certain weaknesses and if you got 'em, you're going to have a hard time.


Thursday, October 08, 2020

Boldly Stating Lies As Fact

 No, I didn't watch the "debate" last night. I flipped over to see what was being said and was greeted with Harris pushing the Russia collusion hoax. Given that the recently revealed and declassified documents have proven beyond any reasonable doubt, that the Russia hoax was made up by team Clinton for the purposes of smearing Trump. That Brenan knew it was made up. That the Obama admin, including Biden set up Flynn and the entire thing became a coup attempt, anyone mentioning Russia at this point is revealing themselves as ignorant or a total partisan willing to say anything to "win".

So I went back to my reading and soon went to bed.

This AM I ran across a video by Tony Heller in regards to another piece of misinformation bandied about during the "debate"; that wildfires and hurricanes are more prevalent now due to "climate change"


In case of one of two things:

1) YouTube takes down the video because it "contradicts experts".

2) You don't have the time right now to watch the video

Here are three screenshots to underscore the boldness of the lie.


Landfalling hurricanes have been declining since 1800s


1886 was the most active hurricane season in recorded US history (emphasis on recorded since the Earth is a 4.5 billion years old and the US has been around for about 200 of those years. And even if you were a young earth creationist who believes the earth is about 5000 years old, America still hasn't been around all that long.



Lastly, from the NYT:


Person and a spark eh? 



4 arrested eh?

And this doesn't even touch the subject of poor land management.

Like I said, I had better things to do than watch misinformation. You're being lied to by "climate scientists" and you're being lied to by "COVID scientists". They know that the vast majority of you will not have the time or inclination to seek out the data. They know that most of you cannot understand the papers they refer to (not a knock on the general public, the general public shouldn't HAVE TO) in order to see how the information in those papers are either being misrepresented or simply don't say what the personality claims it says.  And when all else fails, they will simply bar people from posting facts onto social media platforms or ban the poster outright.

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Is NYC Scapegoating Orthodox Jews In Order To Maintain The Fear Narrative?

 So we have the Mayor of NY threatening mostly Jewish neighborhoods with lockdowns due to the increase in cases in their neighborhoods. While I'm not prone to going to bat for Jews of any kind, as they have their own advocates, I do have to object to what I see as targetted harassment of that population with the sole purpose of maintaining a fear narrative.

See these graphs below:


Daily Cases:


New York has essentially "flattened the curve" in respect to cases. It's been flat since June. We were told 15 days to flatten the curve. Done. Why are we harassing people?

Daily Deaths:


You can barely make out the daily deaths at the tail of the graph. If you must know the last number is 18.

1. 8.

Again, Why is the Mayor harassing Jews when the curve is flat and the deaths are statistical noise?

While Brooklyn (Kings County) and Queens has the highest number of new cases, their death counts as of yesterday were 1 and 3 respectively.

Again, why are they being harassed?

Deaths are on the floor. Cases are flat (slight variability from week to week). So unless the data collected by Worldometers is wrong, there is no data or scientific basis for the new lockdowns and all of that.

The government is simply mad that a segment of the population refuses to live in paranoia. Paranoia is when you fear of a thing is greater than it's actual threat to you. That's what's going on in NYC.

But Fear Itself

 I was struck by a comment I saw online in regards to Trump declaring that we should not be afraid of COVID


Besides the fact that none of us elected "public health officials", I was struck by how the reaction to this is a complete 180 from the attitude that was present in 1933 where then president FDR said the following:

So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. And I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. This used to be an ethos of America and Americans. Whatever the task, we don't accept living in fear. 

That was then.

FDR also said:

...the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; farmers find no markets for their produce; the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone.

More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence, and an equally great number toil with little return. Only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.

Our greatest primary task is to put people to work. This is no unsolvable problem if we face it wisely and courageously.

There are many ways in which it can be helped, but it can never be helped merely by talking about it. We must act and act quickly. 

FDR would be going "against the advice of pubic health officials if he made that speech today.

But that was then when popular sentiment in regards to such speech was:

"Any man who can talk like that in times like these is worthy of every ounce of support a true American has." 

I'll remind the reader that at the time FDR made that speech he had been stricken by Polio which at that time had no vaccine.

The chart below shows the numbers of people who developed paralytic polio 


You see that there was a peak back in 1955 or so. There were large spikes from 1910 through 1940 before the big one.  Paralysis of the leg isn't death but I don't know anyone who would volunteer to get paralyzed and yet society did not shut down (They did remove children from homes and shut pools down during the summers)

Thousands of American children were  paralyzed by polio, which is caused by a virus that is usually passed by the fecal-oral route (from feces to mouth), by way of food, water or poor hygiene. Some people infected with the virus did not develop any symptoms but could still transmit the disease.

In about 1 in 200 cases,  people with polio  developed paralysis, and although some recovered from their paralysis, many of these victims were paralyzed and confined to crutches or wheelchairs for life. Children whose breathing muscles were paralyzed were placed inside a sealed ventilator chamber known as an iron 

 And yet, life went on. I cannot imagine what would happen today if children started getting paralyzed at rates of 1 in 200.

So in 2020 America, living without fear, which is not the same as living without caution or awareness, is frowned upon by the Smart Set, whereas in the 1930s living without fear was a trait to be admired. Not all change is good.

Saturday, October 03, 2020

Was My Math Dead On?

 So I saw some readers going back to older posts on Wuhan and I decided to look at my math post in which I made a mathematical argument for how many deaths we would see. I said:


I did some math against these numbers and found the following:

1) The Mean is: 1116 deaths.
The Standard Deviation is: 1262
The Margin of Error is: 420.5
Variance: 1,592,094

As you can see only China and Italy has deaths above the mean and 2 Standard Deviations from the mean. Mathematically we would consider these two cases to be outlier data that is to be considered suspect. Similarly Germany and South Korea would be considered outliers even though they are well within 1SD of the mean. The math suggests that Spain, France and Iran may be the most likely outcome. Realize with a variance as high as 1.6 million we could still see "large" numbers of deaths. I put large in quotes because next to the world population of 7.8 billion, 1.6 million is not all that much. That may sound cold but that's the numbers.

Well as of this writing, according to worldometers there have been 1,037,517 deaths as of today.



As you can see from the graph below. deaths are growing by 250K every 1.6 months. With three months left in the year that means an expected total mortality for the year of ~1,400,000 which is within the variance I calculated back in March. Assuming that things don't change, you should ask yourself why a blogger who is not an epidemiologist or any other medical expert could calculate, within 200k deaths the total number of worldwide deaths from Wuhan? Also, why did so many experts from "prestigious" institutions get it wrong and continue to get it wrong?

I'd also like to point out that this is not even accounting for the issue of dying with COVID and from COVID.  That is, if you were on deaths door and COVID was the last kick, I don't consider you a COVID death. However; if you were otherwise healthy and died of COVID, I DO consider you a COVID death.  Also, if you have say Diabetes and are obese but otherwise "healthy" and contracted COVID and died, I'd consider that a COVID death since you weren't waltzing with The Reaper, though you may have scheduled an appointment. This is not how deaths are being recorded so keep that in mind.

Well I'd like to think it's because I play BlackJack to win money. To do so I must be familiar with the math of the game. Not playing by the math literally costs me money. There may be at least one reader who knows when I was losing money so they know how devastating to the bankroll that can be. Since I cannot rely on magical thinking, wishing, Indian Buddahs, lucky charms, rubbing screens, lucky rabbits feet or other things to make my money (currently $20/hour), I must calculate my game and play as calculated. Too many of the people who are selling you bad info do not have to literally worry about being wrong and losing all their money and livelihoods.

Perhaps the CDC and WHO ought to hire some professional gamblers to do their statistics.

More Info On Vit D

I'm posting this because it is important that people, particularly dark skinned people, understand the consequences of  vit D deficiency. Here's a good explainer from nutraingredients.com

Dr Davies points out there’s a very specific reason this hormone is important with the COVID-19 virus, due to the mechanism by which it enters our cells. 

“It targets a protein spike on cell surfaces called ACE2 which is part of something called the renin-angiotensin system or RAS. Among other things, the RAS regulates blood pressure and inflammatory response. To use a metaphor, it’s like an engine with an accelerator and a brake. To tackle an infection the accelerator is pressed to ramp up inflammatory response to deal with the invading pathogen, but the brake also is depressed to keep things under control. 

“When the invasion is dealt with, the accelerator comes off and the brake brings everything down to an idling state again. The ACE2 protein is the brake, but ACE2 is depleted as the virus replicates which effectively breaks the brake. With only an accelerator, the RAS quickly runs out of control leading to cytokine storm, out-of-control inflammation and the lungs fill up causing pneumonia. This is what kills people. Vitamin D helps here by keeping the accelerator under control by suppressing a mechanism further upstream that activates it. 

“We also know that the ACE2 receptors are normally ‘invisible’ when the RAS is in its idle state, as they ACE2 receptors form a bound complex with another cell receptor. This complex comes apart during the inflammatory response when ACE2 is needed, but this also makes it visible to the virus. Vitamin D helps to keep the RAS calm so that ACE2 remains hidden.” 

This is why The Ghost tries to do his running between 10AM and 2PM when the sun is strongest (except in summer) and supplements D in the fall through spring. Melanin in the skin refracts UV radiation which is why black people aren't [as] susceptible to developing skin cancer and conversely why red headed white people are VERY susceptible to developing skin cancer. However; the cost of that protection is that it takes a lot more sun exposure time to make Vit D. In Africa or other equatorial locations, this isn't usually a problem. but in extreme northern and southern  latitudes, such as the northern US, Europe, the available sunlight is far less and the additional clothing worn reduces the amount of skin available to make vit. D

So if you find yourself in one of these climate zones take a Vit D supplement. Take your Zinc and if you're likely to be around a crowd of people, hit your mouth with some oil of Oregano.  Not that these things will make you invincible and unable to get sick. No, it helps you keep [some] diseases from hitting you hard and may just keep you out of the hospital and the attendant bills.